{smcl}
{com}{sf}{ul off}{txt}{.-}
      name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}/Users/JohnVKane/Desktop/Research/Incumbency Advantage/Manuscript/PSRM Submission/Revise and Resubmit/Submission/Round 2/Replication Materials/replication_log.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}opened on:  {res} 4 Apr 2024, 13:52:28

{com}. do "/Users/JohnVKane/Desktop/Research/Incumbency Advantage/Manuscript/PSRM Submission/Revise and Resubmit/Submission/Round 2/Replication Materials/Replication Code_Two Terms of Endearment.do"
{txt}
{com}. /* REPLICATION CODE FOR "TWO TERMS OF ENDEARMENT?"
> JOURNAL: POLITICAL SCIENCE RESEARCH & METHODS
> AUTHOR:  JOHN V. KANE (jvk221@nyu.ed)
> */
. 
. cls // clear screen
{txt}
{com}. ssc install schemepack, replace // color schemes
{txt}checking {hilite:schemepack} consistency and verifying not already installed...
all files already exist and are up to date.

{com}. net install grc1leg, from( http://www.stata.com/users/vwiggins/) replace // combine graphs and use 1 legend
checking {hilite:grc1leg} consistency and verifying not already installed...
all files already exist and are up to date.
{txt}
{com}. graph set window fontface "Garamond" // set font
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. **# OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSES
. 
. *TABLE 1
. use "Election data_Table1.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. list Year SittingParty1Term SittingParty2orMoreTerms if Year!=.
{txt}
     {c TLC}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 11}{c -}{hline 11}{c TRC}
     {c |} {res}Year   Sitting~m   Sitting~s {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 11}{c -}{hline 11}{c RT}
  1. {c |} {res}1952           .   .44712991 {txt}{c |}
  2. {c |} {res}1956   .57746479           . {txt}{c |}
  3. {c |} {res}1960           .   .49899194 {txt}{c |}
  4. {c |} {res}1964   .61345382           . {txt}{c |}
  5. {c |} {res}1968           .   .49593496 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 11}{c -}{hline 11}{c RT}
  6. {c |} {res}1972   .61812627           . {txt}{c |}
  7. {c |} {res}1976           .   .48929664 {txt}{c |}
  8. {c |} {res}1980   .44711014           . {txt}{c |}
  9. {c |} {res}1984    .5915493           . {txt}{c |}
 10. {c |} {res}1988           .   .53939394 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 11}{c -}{hline 11}{c RT}
 11. {c |} {res}1992           .   .46517413 {txt}{c |}
 12. {c |} {res}1996   .54727475           . {txt}{c |}
 13. {c |} {res}2000           .   .50259605 {txt}{c |}
 14. {c |} {res}2004   .51212121           . {txt}{c |}
 15. {c |} {res}2008           .   .46348884 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 11}{c -}{hline 11}{c RT}
 16. {c |} {res}2012   .51983723           . {txt}{c |}
 17. {c |} {res}2016           .   .51059322 {txt}{c |}
 18. {c |} {res}2020   .47733523           . {txt}{c |}
     {c BLC}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 11}{c -}{hline 11}{c BRC}

{com}. 
. *Difference in proportion of wins between 1- and 2-term candidates
. prtest after1term==after2terms // 44 percentage points

{txt}Two-sample test of proportions            {res}after1term{txt}: Number of obs = {res}       9
                                         after2terms{txt}: Number of obs = {res}       9
{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 64}
    Variable{col 14}{c |}{col 22}Mean{col 29}Std. err.{col 44}z{col 49}P>|z|{col 59}[95% conf. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
  after1term {c |}{res}{col 17} .7777778{col 28} .1385799{col 58} .5061662{col 70} 1.049389
 {txt}after2terms {c |}{res}{col 17} .3333333{col 28} .1571348{col 58} .0253547{col 70}  .641312
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
        diff {c |}{res}{col 17} .4444444{col 28} .2095131{col 58} .0338063{col 70} .8550826
{txt}{col 14}{c |}{col 17}under H0:{res}{col 28} .2342428{col 38}    1.90{col 49}0.058
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 64}
        diff = prop({res}after1term{txt}) - prop({res}after2terms{txt})               z = {res}  1.8974
{txt}    H0: diff = 0

    Ha: diff < 0                 Ha: diff != 0                 Ha: diff > 0
 Pr(Z < z) = {res}0.9711         {txt}Pr(|Z| > |z|) = {res}0.0578          {txt}Pr(Z > z) = {res}0.0289
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Difference in 2-party vote shares between 1- and 2-term candidates
. ttest SittingParty1Term==SittingParty2orMoreTerms, unpaired

{txt}Two-sample t test with equal variances
{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 68}
Variable{col 10}{c |}{col 16}Obs{col 27}Mean{col 35}Std. err.{col 47}Std. dev.{col 59}[95% conf. interval]
{hline 9}{c +}{hline 68}
Sittin~m {c |}{res}{col 12}      9{col 22} .5449192{col 34} .0201158{col 46} .0603473{col 58} .4985321{col 70} .5913063
{txt}Sittin~s {c |}{res}{col 12}      9{col 22} .4902888{col 34} .0093507{col 46}  .028052{col 58} .4687261{col 70} .5118516
{txt}{hline 9}{c +}{hline 68}
Combined {c |}{res}{col 12}     18{col 22}  .517604{col 34} .0126362{col 46} .0536107{col 58}  .490944{col 70}  .544264
{txt}{hline 9}{c +}{hline 68}
    diff {c |}{res}{col 22} .0546303{col 34} .0221829{col 58} .0076048{col 70} .1016559
{txt}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 68}
    diff = mean({res}SittingParty1T~m{txt}) - mean({res}SittingParty2o~s{txt})        t = {res}  2.4627
{txt}H0: diff = 0                                     Degrees of freedom = {res}      16

    {txt}Ha: diff < 0                 Ha: diff != 0                 Ha: diff > 0
 Pr(T < t) = {res}0.9872         {txt}Pr(|T| > |t|) = {res}0.0255          {txt}Pr(T > t) = {res}0.0128
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Difference in 2-party vote share of 1-term candidate compared to expected mean (50%)
. ttest SittingParty1Term==.50

{txt}One-sample t test
{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 68}
Variable{col 10}{c |}{col 16}Obs{col 27}Mean{col 35}Std. err.{col 47}Std. dev.{col 59}[95% conf. interval]
{hline 9}{c +}{hline 68}
Sittin~m {c |}{res}{col 12}      9{col 22} .5449192{col 34} .0201158{col 46} .0603473{col 58} .4985321{col 70} .5913063
{txt}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 68}
    mean = mean({res}SittingParty1Term{txt})                                t = {res}  2.2330
{txt}H0: mean = {res}.50                                   {txt}Degrees of freedom = {res}       8

   {txt}Ha: mean < {res}.50               {txt}Ha: mean != {res}.50               {txt}Ha: mean > {res}.50
 {txt}Pr(T < t) = {res}0.9720         {txt}Pr(|T| > |t|) = {res}0.0560          {txt}Pr(T > t) = {res}0.0280
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Difference in 2-party vote share of 2-term candidate compared to expected mean (50%)
. ttest SittingParty2orMoreTerms==.50

{txt}One-sample t test
{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 68}
Variable{col 10}{c |}{col 16}Obs{col 27}Mean{col 35}Std. err.{col 47}Std. dev.{col 59}[95% conf. interval]
{hline 9}{c +}{hline 68}
Sittin~s {c |}{res}{col 12}      9{col 22} .4902888{col 34} .0093507{col 46}  .028052{col 58} .4687261{col 70} .5118516
{txt}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 68}
    mean = mean({res}SittingParty2orMoreTerms{txt})                         t = {res} -1.0386
{txt}H0: mean = {res}.50                                   {txt}Degrees of freedom = {res}       8

   {txt}Ha: mean < {res}.50               {txt}Ha: mean != {res}.50               {txt}Ha: mean > {res}.50
 {txt}Pr(T < t) = {res}0.1647         {txt}Pr(|T| > |t|) = {res}0.3294          {txt}Pr(T > t) = {res}0.8353
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *FIGURE 1
. use "Election data_PostCivilWar.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Left panel
. mean IncVoteShare_1T // average two-party vote share of 1-term incumbent-party candidates since 1868
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Mean estimation{col 48}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 61} = {res}{ralign 2:16}

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}       Mean{col 29}   Std. err.{col 41}     [95% con{col 54}f. interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}
IncVoteShare_1T {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .543089{col 29}{space 2} .0156349{col 40}{space 5} .5097639{col 54}{space 3}  .576414
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}

{com}. est store mod_1t
{txt}
{com}. 
. mean IncVoteShare_2T // average two-party vote share of 2-term incumbent-party candidates since 1868
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Mean estimation{col 48}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 61} = {res}{ralign 2:12}

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}       Mean{col 29}   Std. err.{col 41}     [95% con{col 54}f. interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}
IncVoteShare_2T {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .5105127{col 29}{space 2} .0178363{col 40}{space 5} .4712551{col 54}{space 3} .5497702
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}

{com}. est store mod_2t
{txt}
{com}. 
. mean IncVoteShare_3Tplus // average two-party vote share of 3+ term incumbent-party candidates since 1868
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Mean estimation{col 52}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 65} = {res}{ralign 2:11}

{txt}{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}
{col 21}{c |}       Mean{col 33}   Std. err.{col 45}     [95% con{col 58}f. interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}
IncVoteShare_3Tplus {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}  .484097{col 33}{space 2} .0185656{col 44}{space 5} .4427304{col 58}{space 3} .5254637
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}

{com}. est store mod_3tplus
{txt}
{com}. 
. coefplot (mod_1t, label(One Term)) (mod_2t, label(Two Terms)) ///
> (mod_3tplus, label(Three or More Terms)), ///
> recast(bar) barwidth(.4) color(%70) bfintensity(100)  ///
> coeflabels(IncVoteShare_1T=" " IncVoteShare_2T=" " IncVoteShare_3Tplus=" ") ///
> levels(95 90) citop ///
> xline(.5) ///
> xtitle("Average Two-Party Vote Share") ///
> xlab(.44(.02).66, glcolor(gs15) glpattern(solid)) ///
> grid(noticks glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs15)) ///
> ylab(, noticks) ///
> saving(g1, replace)
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
g1.gph{rm}
not found)
{p_end}
{res}{txt}file {bf:g1.gph} saved

{com}. 
. ttest IncVoteShare_1T==.50 // p=.01

{txt}One-sample t test
{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 68}
Variable{col 10}{c |}{col 16}Obs{col 27}Mean{col 35}Std. err.{col 47}Std. dev.{col 59}[95% conf. interval]
{hline 9}{c +}{hline 68}
IncVo~1T {c |}{res}{col 12}     16{col 22}  .543089{col 34} .0156349{col 46} .0625397{col 58} .5097639{col 70}  .576414
{txt}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 68}
    mean = mean({res}IncVoteShare_1T{txt})                                  t = {res}  2.7559
{txt}H0: mean = {res}.50                                   {txt}Degrees of freedom = {res}      15

   {txt}Ha: mean < {res}.50               {txt}Ha: mean != {res}.50               {txt}Ha: mean > {res}.50
 {txt}Pr(T < t) = {res}0.9926         {txt}Pr(|T| > |t|) = {res}0.0147          {txt}Pr(T > t) = {res}0.0074
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Right panel
. mean IncVoteShare_1T,over(post1952) // avg. tpvs of 1-term incumbent-party candidates pre/post 1952
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Mean estimation{col 59}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 72} = {res}{ralign 2:16}

{txt}{hline 27}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}
{col 28}{c |}       Mean{col 40}   Std. err.{col 52}     [95% con{col 65}f. interval]
{hline 27}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}
c.IncVoteShare_1T@post1952 {c |}
{space 17}Pre-1952  {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2} .5407358{col 40}{space 2} .0264867{col 51}{space 5} .4842808{col 65}{space 3} .5971908
{txt}{space 16}Post-1952  {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2} .5449192{col 40}{space 2} .0201158{col 51}{space 5} .5020434{col 65}{space 3}  .587795
{txt}{hline 27}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}

{com}. est store mod_1tover
{txt}
{com}. 
. mean IncVoteShare_2T,over(post1952) // avg. tpvs of 2-term incumbent-party candidates pre/post 1952
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Mean estimation{col 59}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 72} = {res}{ralign 2:12}

{txt}{hline 27}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}
{col 28}{c |}       Mean{col 40}   Std. err.{col 52}     [95% con{col 65}f. interval]
{hline 27}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}
c.IncVoteShare_2T@post1952 {c |}
{space 17}Pre-1952  {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2} .5251713{col 40}{space 2}  .043021{col 51}{space 5} .4304827{col 65}{space 3} .6198598
{txt}{space 16}Post-1952  {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2} .5000422{col 40}{space 2}  .008641{col 51}{space 5} .4810236{col 65}{space 3} .5190609
{txt}{hline 27}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}

{com}. est store mod_2tover
{txt}
{com}. 
. mean IncVoteShare_3Tplus,over(post1952) // avg. tpvs of 3+ term incumbent-party candidates pre/post 1952
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Mean estimation{col 63}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 76} = {res}{ralign 2:11}

{txt}{hline 31}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}
{col 32}{c |}       Mean{col 44}   Std. err.{col 56}     [95% con{col 69}f. interval]
{hline 31}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}
c.IncVoteShare_3Tplus@post1952 {c |}
{space 21}Pre-1952  {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} .4903071{col 44}{space 2} .0223119{col 55}{space 5} .4405931{col 69}{space 3}  .540021
{txt}{space 20}Post-1952  {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}  .456152{col 44}{space 2} .0090221{col 55}{space 5} .4360495{col 69}{space 3} .4762546
{txt}{hline 31}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}

{com}. est store mod_3tplusover
{txt}
{com}. 
. coefplot (mod_1tover, label(One Term)) (mod_2tover, label(Two Terms)) ///
> (mod_3tplusover, label(Three or More Terms)), ///
> recast(bar) barwidth(.3) color(%70) bfintensity(100) ///
> levels(95 90) citop ///
> coeflabels(c.IncVoteShare_1T@0.post1952="Pre-1952" c.IncVoteShare_1T@1.post1952="Post-1952" ///
> c.IncVoteShare_2T@0.post1952="Pre-1952" c.IncVoteShare_2T@1.post1952="Post-1952" ///
> c.IncVoteShare_3Tplus@0.post1952="Pre-1952" c.IncVoteShare_3Tplus@1.post1952="Post-1952") ///
> xline(.5) ///
> xtitle("Average Two-Party Vote Share") ///
> xlab(.44(.02).66, glcolor(gs15) glpattern(solid)) ///
> legend(pos(6) col(3) size(small) colgap(vsmall) keygap(tiny)) ///
> grid(glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs15)) ///
> ylab(, labsize(small)) ///
> saving(g2, replace)
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
g2.gph{rm}
not found)
{p_end}
{res}{txt}file {bf:g2.gph} saved

{com}. 
. *Combine graphs
. grc1leg "g1.gph" "g2.gph" , ///
> legendfrom(g2.gph) ///
> col(3) ///
> iscale(.8) scheme(white_tableau) ///
> xsize(6.5) ysize(5.5) ///
> graphregion(margin(small)) ///
> imargin(small) ///
> saving(g12combined, replace) //
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
g12combined.gph{rm}
not found)
{p_end}
{res}{txt}file {bf:g12combined.gph} saved

{com}. 
. 
. **#EXPERIMENT ANALYSES
. use "Lucid data.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. **FIGURE 2
. *Top
. graph hbar, /// basic horizontal bar graph command (can make vertical by removing "h")
> over(inc_PreTreat1T) /// the groups *within* each bar (values seen within bars)
> over(D0I1R2) /// the groups *across* bars (values seen on x-axis)
> stack asyvars /// commands needed for stacking bars
> scheme(white_jet) /// set scheme (white_jet was original)
> percentage blabel(bar, pos(center) format(%3.0f) size(medium) color(white)) /// add percentages
> bar(1, fintensity(100) fcolor(%80)) ///
> bar(2, fintensity(100) fcolor(%80)) ///
> bar(3, fintensity(100) fcolor(%80)) ///
> bar(4, fintensity(100) fcolor(%80)) ///
> bar(5, fintensity(100) fcolor(%80)) ///
> bar(6, fintensity(100) fcolor(%80)) ///
> ytitle("") /// title y-axis (since it's hbar, y-axis is on bottom)
> legend(off) /// specifies size of legend text, rows, and span graph
> ylab(, glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs14)) ///
> xsize(6.5) ysize(4.5) /// graph dimensions
> title("{c -(}bf: Presidents Should Have 2 Terms{c )-}", box fcolor(gs14) span) ///
> saving(stackedgraph_1t, replace) //
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
stackedgraph_1t.gph{rm}
not found)
{p_end}
{res}{txt}file {bf:stackedgraph_1t.gph} saved

{com}. 
. *Bottom
. graph hbar, /// basic horizontal bar graph command (can make vertical by removing "h")
> over(inc_PreTreat_2T) /// the groups *within* each bar (values seen within bars)
> over(D0I1R2) /// the groups *across* bars (values seen on x-axis)
> stack asyvars /// commands needed for stacking bars
> scheme(white_jet) /// set scheme
> percentage blabel(bar, pos(center) format(%3.0f) size(medium) color(white)) /// add percentages
> bar(1, fintensity(100) fcolor(%80)) ///
> bar(2, fintensity(100) fcolor(%80)) ///
> bar(3, fintensity(100) fcolor(%80)) ///
> bar(4, fintensity(100) fcolor(%80)) ///
> bar(5, fintensity(100) fcolor(%80)) ///
> bar(6, fintensity(100) fcolor(%80)) ///
> ytitle("Percentage of Sample") /// title y-axis (since it's hbar, y-axis is on bottom)
> ylab(, glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs14)) ///
> xsize(6.5) ysize(4.5) /// graph dimensions
> title("{c -(}bf: Other Party Should Hold Presidency After 2 Terms{c )-}", box fcolor(gs14) span) ///
> legend(ring(1) col(1) pos(3) title("{c -(}bf: Response Options{c )-}", size(medsmall) box margin(vsmall) fcolor(gs14))) ///
> saving(stackedgraph_2t, replace) //
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
stackedgraph_2t.gph{rm}
not found)
{p_end}
{res}{txt}file {bf:stackedgraph_2t.gph} saved

{com}. 
. *Combine graphs
. grc1leg stackedgraph_1t.gph stackedgraph_2t.gph, ///
> scheme(white_jet) ///
> ycommon xcommon ///
> xsize(7.5) ysize(4.5) ///
> legendfrom(stackedgraph_2t.gph) ///
> pos(3) col(1) ring(1) ///
> play("hbar_combined_blue_fixes.grec") /// these fixes change the text color for the light bar & graph dimensions
> graphregion(color(white) margin(tiny)) //
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. **FIGURE 3 
. *Left Panel
. 
. *Voting for Democrat
. logit VoteDem i.Inc0C1T2T if Inc0C1T2T<=1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-927.71555}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-924.82588}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res: -924.8258}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:1,344}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:1})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:5.78}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0162}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 9:-924.8258}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0031}

{txt}{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            VoteDem{col 21}{c |} Coefficient{col 33}  Std. err.{col 45}      z{col 53}   P>|z|{col 61}     [95% con{col 74}f. interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 10}Inc0C1T2T {c |}
One-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .2633507{col 33}{space 2} .1096644{col 44}{space 1}    2.40{col 53}{space 3}0.016{col 61}{space 4} .0484125{col 74}{space 3} .4782889
{txt}{space 14}_cons {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.2842158{col 33}{space 2} .0778741{col 44}{space 1}   -3.65{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4}-.4368462{col 74}{space 3}-.1315854
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, at(Inc0C1T2T=(0 1)) level(83) saving(incGraphD, replace) // 
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Adjusted predictions{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:1,344}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(VoteDem), predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 7:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:Inc0C1T2T} = {res:{ralign 1:0}}
{lalign 7:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:Inc0C1T2T} = {res:{ralign 1:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [83% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4294205{col 26}{space 2} .0190806{col 37}{space 1}   22.51{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4032381{col 67}{space 3}  .455603
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4947839{col 26}{space 2} .0193012{col 37}{space 1}   25.63{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4682987{col 67}{space 3} .5212691
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
incGraphD.dta{rm}
not found)
{p_end}

{com}. * di .4947839-.4294205 = .0653634 change in probability
. 
. *Voting for Republican
. logit VoteRep i.Inc0C1T2T if Inc0C1T2T<=1  //

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-905.26515}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-903.82349}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res: -903.8234}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res: -903.8234}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:1,335}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:1})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:2.88}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0895}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 9:-903.8234}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0016}

{txt}{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            VoteRep{col 21}{c |} Coefficient{col 33}  Std. err.{col 45}      z{col 53}   P>|z|{col 61}     [95% con{col 74}f. interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 10}Inc0C1T2T {c |}
One-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1888514{col 33}{space 2} .1112766{col 44}{space 1}    1.70{col 53}{space 3}0.090{col 61}{space 4}-.0292467{col 74}{space 3} .4069495
{txt}{space 14}_cons {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.4440031{col 33}{space 2} .0790019{col 44}{space 1}   -5.62{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4}-.5988441{col 74}{space 3}-.2891622
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, at(Inc0C1T2T=(0 1)) level(83) saving(incGraphR, replace) // 
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Adjusted predictions{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:1,335}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(VoteRep), predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 7:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:Inc0C1T2T} = {res:{ralign 1:0}}
{lalign 7:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:Inc0C1T2T} = {res:{ralign 1:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [83% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3907875{col 26}{space 2} .0188082{col 37}{space 1}   20.78{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3649788{col 67}{space 3} .4165962
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4365559{col 26}{space 2}  .019276{col 37}{space 1}   22.65{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4101053{col 67}{space 3} .4630065
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
incGraphR.dta{rm}
not found)
{p_end}

{com}. *di .4365559 -.3907875=.0457684
. 
. *Weighted average (combining across voting for the Democrat and voting for the Republican)
. di (((.4947839-.4294205)*1344)+((.4365559-.3907875)*1335)) / (1344+1335) // .05559881, 5.56 percentage-points
{res}.05559881
{txt}
{com}. 
. combomarginsplot incGraphD incGraphR, scheme(white_jet) ///
> labels("Democratic Candidate" "Republican Candidate") ///
> ytitle("{c -(}bf:Pr(Vote for the Candidate){c )-}", size(medsmall)) ///
> xsize(6.5) ysize(4.5) ///
> file1opts(lcolor(midblue%90) lwidth(medthick) msize(vlarge) mcolor(midblue%90) mlcolor(cyan)) ///
> file2opts(lcolor("252 0 0"%90) lwidth(medthick) msize(large) msymbol(triangle) mcolor("252 0 0"%90) mlcolor(orange)) ///
> fileci1opts(lwidth(medthick) lcolor(midblue%60)) ///
> fileci2opts(lwidth(medthick) lcolor("252 0 0%60")) ///
> offset(.02) ///
> graphregion(margin(medsmall)) ///
> xlab(0 `""Pure" "Control""' 1 `""1-Term" "Incumbent""', glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs14)) ///
> ylab(, glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs14)) ///
> plotregion(margin(large)) ///
> legend (ring(0) pos(11) col(1)) title("") xtitle("") saving(combomargins_incumbentEffect.gph, replace)
{res}
{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: Inc0C1T2T _filenumber{p_end}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
combomargins_incumbentEffect.gph{rm}
not found)
{p_end}
{res}{txt}file {bf:combomargins_incumbentEffect.gph} saved

{com}. 
. *Right Panel
. 
. logit VoteIncumbent i.Inc1T2T

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1839.4092}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1836.8354}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1836.8353}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:2,678}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:1})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:5.15}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0233}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-1836.8353}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0014}

{txt}{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}      VoteIncumbent{col 21}{c |} Coefficient{col 33}  Std. err.{col 45}      z{col 53}   P>|z|{col 61}     [95% con{col 74}f. interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 12}Inc1T2T {c |}
Two-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.1765721{col 33}{space 2} .0778612{col 44}{space 1}   -2.27{col 53}{space 3}0.023{col 61}{space 4}-.3291772{col 74}{space 3} -.023967
{txt}{space 14}_cons {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.1367468{col 33}{space 2} .0549072{col 44}{space 1}   -2.49{col 53}{space 3}0.013{col 61}{space 4} -.244363{col 74}{space 3}-.0291307
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, at(Inc1T2T=(0 1)) level(83)
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Adjusted predictions{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:2,678}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(VoteIncumbent), predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 7:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 7:Inc1T2T} = {res:{ralign 1:0}}
{lalign 7:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 7:Inc1T2T} = {res:{ralign 1:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [83% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4658665{col 26}{space 2} .0136628{col 37}{space 1}   34.10{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4471183{col 67}{space 3} .4846147
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4223048{col 26}{space 2} .0134679{col 37}{space 1}   31.36{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4038241{col 67}{space 3} .4407856
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, ///
> scheme(white_jet) ///
> ytitle("") /// leave blank b/c it will be in the combined graph
> xsize(6.5) ysize(4.5) ///
> plotregion(margin(large)) ///
> graphregion(margin(medsmall)) ///
> plotopts(lcolor(gs6%80) lwidth(thick) msize(vlarge) mcolor(black) mlcolor(white)) ///
> ciopts(lcolor(gs6%75) lwidth(medthick)) ///
> title("") ///
> xtitle("") ///
> level(83) ///
> xlab(0 `""1-Term" "Incumbent""' 1 `""2-Term" "Candidate""', glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs14)) ///
> ylab(, glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs14)) ///
> saving(1Tv2TincumbentEffect.gph, replace)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:Inc1T2T}{p_end}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
1Tv2TincumbentEffect.gph{rm}
not found)
{p_end}
{res}{txt}file {bf:1Tv2TincumbentEffect.gph} saved

{com}. 
. *Combine panels
. graph combine "combomargins_incumbentEffect.gph" "1Tv2TincumbentEffect.gph", ///
> scheme(white_jet) graphregion(margin(tiny)) col(2) ///
> xsize(6.5) ysize(4.5) ///
> ycommon xcommon
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. **FIGURE 4
. 
. *Democratic candidate estimates
. logit VoteDem i.Inc0C1T2T

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1389.9507}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res: -1387.056}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1387.0559}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:2,014}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:2})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:5.79}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0553}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-1387.0559}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0021}

{txt}{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            VoteDem{col 21}{c |} Coefficient{col 33}  Std. err.{col 45}      z{col 53}   P>|z|{col 61}     [95% con{col 74}f. interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 10}Inc0C1T2T {c |}
One-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .2633507{col 33}{space 2} .1096644{col 44}{space 1}    2.40{col 53}{space 3}0.016{col 61}{space 4} .0484125{col 74}{space 3} .4782889
{txt}Two-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1226714{col 33}{space 2} .1098797{col 44}{space 1}    1.12{col 53}{space 3}0.264{col 61}{space 4} -.092689{col 74}{space 3} .3380317
{txt}{space 19} {c |}
{space 14}_cons {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.2842158{col 33}{space 2} .0778741{col 44}{space 1}   -3.65{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4}-.4368462{col 74}{space 3}-.1315854
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, at(Inc0C1T2T=(0 1 2)) level(83) saving(incGraphD2, replace) // 
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Adjusted predictions{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:2,014}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(VoteDem), predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 7:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:Inc0C1T2T} = {res:{ralign 1:0}}
{lalign 7:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:Inc0C1T2T} = {res:{ralign 1:1}}
{lalign 7:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:Inc0C1T2T} = {res:{ralign 1:2}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [83% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4294205{col 26}{space 2} .0190806{col 37}{space 1}   22.51{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4032381{col 67}{space 3}  .455603
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4947839{col 26}{space 2} .0193012{col 37}{space 1}   25.63{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4682987{col 67}{space 3} .5212691
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4597015{col 26}{space 2} .0192538{col 37}{space 1}   23.88{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4332813{col 67}{space 3} .4861217
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
incGraphD2.dta{rm}
not found)
{p_end}

{com}. 
. *Republican candidate estimates
. logit VoteRep i.Inc0C1T2T

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1355.9309}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1353.7419}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1353.7417}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1353.7417}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:2,010}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:2})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:4.38}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.1120}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-1353.7417}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0016}

{txt}{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            VoteRep{col 21}{c |} Coefficient{col 33}  Std. err.{col 45}      z{col 53}   P>|z|{col 61}     [95% con{col 74}f. interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 10}Inc0C1T2T {c |}
One-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1888514{col 33}{space 2} .1112766{col 44}{space 1}    1.70{col 53}{space 3}0.090{col 61}{space 4}-.0292467{col 74}{space 3} .4069495
{txt}Two-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.0235938{col 33}{space 2} .1117904{col 44}{space 1}   -0.21{col 53}{space 3}0.833{col 61}{space 4} -.242699{col 74}{space 3} .1955114
{txt}{space 19} {c |}
{space 14}_cons {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.4440031{col 33}{space 2} .0790019{col 44}{space 1}   -5.62{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4}-.5988441{col 74}{space 3}-.2891622
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, at(Inc0C1T2T=(0 1 2)) level(83) saving(incGraphR2, replace) // 
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Adjusted predictions{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:2,010}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(VoteRep), predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 7:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:Inc0C1T2T} = {res:{ralign 1:0}}
{lalign 7:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:Inc0C1T2T} = {res:{ralign 1:1}}
{lalign 7:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:Inc0C1T2T} = {res:{ralign 1:2}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [83% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3907875{col 26}{space 2} .0188082{col 37}{space 1}   20.78{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3649788{col 67}{space 3} .4165962
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4365559{col 26}{space 2}  .019276{col 37}{space 1}   22.65{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4101053{col 67}{space 3} .4630065
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3851852{col 26}{space 2} .0187307{col 37}{space 1}   20.56{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3594828{col 67}{space 3} .4108876
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
incGraphR2.dta{rm}
not found)
{p_end}

{com}. 
. *Figure
. combomarginsplot incGraphD2 incGraphR2, scheme(white_jet) ///
> labels("Democratic Candidate" "Republican Candidate") ///
> ytitle("{c -(}bf:Pr(Vote for the Candidate){c )-}", size(medsmall)) ///
> xsize(6.5) ysize(4.5) ///
> file1opts(lcolor(midblue%90) lwidth(medthick) msize(vlarge) mcolor(midblue%90) mlcolor(cyan)) ///
> file2opts(lcolor("252 0 0"%90) lwidth(medthick) msize(vlarge) msymbol(triangle) mcolor("252 0 0"%90) mlcolor(orange)) ///
> fileci1opts(lwidth(medthick) lcolor(midblue%60)) ///
> fileci2opts(lwidth(medthick) lcolor("252 0 0%60")) ///
> offset(.02) ///
> graphregion(margin(small)) ///
> xlab(0 `""Pure" "Control""' 1 `""One-Term" "Incumbent-Party""' 2 `""Two-Term" "Incumbent-Party""', ///
> glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs14)) ///
> ylab(, glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs14)) ///
> plotregion(margin(large)) ///
> legend (ring(1) pos(3) col(1)) title("") xtitle("") saving(combomargins_incumbentEffect2.gph, replace)
{res}
{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: Inc0C1T2T _filenumber{p_end}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
combomargins_incumbentEffect2.gph{rm}
not found)
{p_end}
{res}{txt}file {bf:combomargins_incumbentEffect2.gph} saved

{com}. 
. 
. **FIGURE 5
. use "VSG Panel Data.dta", replace
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Left panel estimates
. logit vote1termIncumbent b1.D0I1R2 c.PolInt01 Female i.raceclean_baseline ///
> age_baseline01 famincclean_2011_01 educclean_baseline_01 

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-361.75659}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-338.39696}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-333.38881}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-333.36555}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-333.36554}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:2,527}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:10})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:56.78}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-333.36554}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0785}

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}   vote1termIncumbent{col 23}{c |} Coefficient{col 35}  Std. err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% con{col 76}f. interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 15}D0I1R2 {c |}
{space 11}Democrats  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0053323{col 35}{space 2} .3155337{col 46}{space 1}    0.02{col 55}{space 3}0.987{col 63}{space 4}-.6131024{col 76}{space 3} .6237671
{txt}{space 9}Republicans  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.015564{col 35}{space 2} .3838143{col 46}{space 1}   -2.65{col 55}{space 3}0.008{col 63}{space 4}-1.767826{col 76}{space 3}-.2633012
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 13}PolInt01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.8438177{col 35}{space 2} .3521577{col 46}{space 1}   -2.40{col 55}{space 3}0.017{col 63}{space 4}-1.534034{col 76}{space 3}-.1536013
{txt}{space 15}Female {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .5602577{col 35}{space 2} .2540212{col 46}{space 1}    2.21{col 55}{space 3}0.027{col 63}{space 4} .0623854{col 76}{space 3}  1.05813
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 3}raceclean_baseline {c |}
{space 15}Black  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.113522{col 35}{space 2} .6033578{col 46}{space 1}   -1.85{col 55}{space 3}0.065{col 63}{space 4}-2.296081{col 76}{space 3} .0690377
{txt}{space 12}Hispanic  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .3663255{col 35}{space 2}  .444849{col 46}{space 1}    0.82{col 55}{space 3}0.410{col 63}{space 4}-.5055625{col 76}{space 3} 1.238213
{txt}{space 15}Other  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .1422268{col 35}{space 2} .4465418{col 46}{space 1}    0.32{col 55}{space 3}0.750{col 63}{space 4}-.7329791{col 76}{space 3} 1.017433
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 7}age_baseline01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.8149514{col 35}{space 2} .7000683{col 46}{space 1}   -1.16{col 55}{space 3}0.244{col 63}{space 4} -2.18706{col 76}{space 3} .5571574
{txt}{space 2}famincclean_2011_01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} -.409042{col 35}{space 2} .4598707{col 46}{space 1}   -0.89{col 55}{space 3}0.374{col 63}{space 4}-1.310372{col 76}{space 3} .4922879
{txt}educclean_baseline_01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.559203{col 35}{space 2} .4757143{col 46}{space 1}   -3.28{col 55}{space 3}0.001{col 63}{space 4}-2.491586{col 76}{space 3}-.6268197
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.432703{col 35}{space 2} .5526966{col 46}{space 1}   -2.59{col 55}{space 3}0.010{col 63}{space 4}-2.515968{col 76}{space 3}-.3494371
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, dydx(*) post
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Average marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:2,527}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(vote1termIncumbent), predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:0.D0I1R2 2.D0I1R2 PolInt01 Female 2.raceclean_baseline 3.raceclean_baseline 4.raceclean_baseline age_baseline01 famincclean_2011_01 educclean_baseline_01}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 23}{c |}{col 35} Delta-method
{col 23}{c |}      dy/dx{col 35}   std. err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% con{col 76}f. interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 15}D0I1R2 {c |}
{space 11}Democrats  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}   .00021{col 35}{space 2} .0124111{col 46}{space 1}    0.02{col 55}{space 3}0.986{col 63}{space 4}-.0241152{col 76}{space 3} .0245353
{txt}{space 9}Republicans  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0261543{col 35}{space 2} .0117138{col 46}{space 1}   -2.23{col 55}{space 3}0.026{col 63}{space 4}-.0491128{col 76}{space 3}-.0031957
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 13}PolInt01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0257714{col 35}{space 2} .0109762{col 46}{space 1}   -2.35{col 55}{space 3}0.019{col 63}{space 4}-.0472844{col 76}{space 3}-.0042584
{txt}{space 15}Female {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0171111{col 35}{space 2} .0079087{col 46}{space 1}    2.16{col 55}{space 3}0.030{col 63}{space 4} .0016103{col 76}{space 3} .0326118
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 3}raceclean_baseline {c |}
{space 15}Black  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0221833{col 35}{space 2} .0077944{col 46}{space 1}   -2.85{col 55}{space 3}0.004{col 63}{space 4}  -.03746{col 76}{space 3}-.0069065
{txt}{space 12}Hispanic  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}  .013697{col 35}{space 2} .0190112{col 46}{space 1}    0.72{col 55}{space 3}0.471{col 63}{space 4}-.0235643{col 76}{space 3} .0509583
{txt}{space 15}Other  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0048084{col 35}{space 2}  .015911{col 46}{space 1}    0.30{col 55}{space 3}0.762{col 63}{space 4}-.0263765{col 76}{space 3} .0359934
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 7}age_baseline01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0248898{col 35}{space 2} .0214934{col 46}{space 1}   -1.16{col 55}{space 3}0.247{col 63}{space 4} -.067016{col 76}{space 3} .0172365
{txt}{space 2}famincclean_2011_01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0124927{col 35}{space 2} .0140887{col 46}{space 1}   -0.89{col 55}{space 3}0.375{col 63}{space 4} -.040106{col 76}{space 3} .0151206
{txt}educclean_baseline_01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0476202{col 35}{space 2} .0151408{col 46}{space 1}   -3.15{col 55}{space 3}0.002{col 63}{space 4}-.0772956{col 76}{space 3}-.0179448
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 87}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. estimates store incumbenteffects_1T 
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Right panel estimates
. logit vote2termIncumbent b1.D0I1R2 c.PolInt01 Female i.raceclean_baseline ///
> age_baseline01 famincclean_2011_01 educclean_baseline_01

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res: -532.5459}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-508.59777}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-502.24758}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-502.23103}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-502.23103}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:2,527}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:10})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:60.63}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-502.23103}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0569}

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}   vote2termIncumbent{col 23}{c |} Coefficient{col 35}  Std. err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% con{col 76}f. interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 15}D0I1R2 {c |}
{space 11}Democrats  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.9730682{col 35}{space 2} .2207132{col 46}{space 1}   -4.41{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-1.405658{col 76}{space 3}-.5404783
{txt}{space 9}Republicans  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.316726{col 35}{space 2}  .244144{col 46}{space 1}   -5.39{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-1.795239{col 76}{space 3}-.8382127
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 13}PolInt01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.6346823{col 35}{space 2} .2977927{col 46}{space 1}   -2.13{col 55}{space 3}0.033{col 63}{space 4}-1.218345{col 76}{space 3}-.0510192
{txt}{space 15}Female {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0812669{col 35}{space 2} .1886132{col 46}{space 1}   -0.43{col 55}{space 3}0.667{col 63}{space 4}-.4509419{col 76}{space 3} .2884082
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 3}raceclean_baseline {c |}
{space 15}Black  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.032684{col 35}{space 2} .5222307{col 46}{space 1}   -1.98{col 55}{space 3}0.048{col 63}{space 4}-2.056237{col 76}{space 3}-.0091306
{txt}{space 12}Hispanic  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .2593604{col 35}{space 2} .3644984{col 46}{space 1}    0.71{col 55}{space 3}0.477{col 63}{space 4}-.4550434{col 76}{space 3} .9737642
{txt}{space 15}Other  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.3023642{col 35}{space 2} .4065654{col 46}{space 1}   -0.74{col 55}{space 3}0.457{col 63}{space 4}-1.099218{col 76}{space 3} .4944893
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 7}age_baseline01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 1.232504{col 35}{space 2} .5800984{col 46}{space 1}    2.12{col 55}{space 3}0.034{col 63}{space 4} .0955317{col 76}{space 3} 2.369476
{txt}{space 2}famincclean_2011_01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.3059128{col 35}{space 2} .3584272{col 46}{space 1}   -0.85{col 55}{space 3}0.393{col 63}{space 4}-1.008417{col 76}{space 3} .3965916
{txt}educclean_baseline_01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.8695634{col 35}{space 2} .3550032{col 46}{space 1}   -2.45{col 55}{space 3}0.014{col 63}{space 4}-1.565357{col 76}{space 3}-.1737699
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.364941{col 35}{space 2} .4420797{col 46}{space 1}   -3.09{col 55}{space 3}0.002{col 63}{space 4}-2.231401{col 76}{space 3}-.4984804
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, dydx(*) post
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Average marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:2,527}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(vote2termIncumbent), predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:0.D0I1R2 2.D0I1R2 PolInt01 Female 2.raceclean_baseline 3.raceclean_baseline 4.raceclean_baseline age_baseline01 famincclean_2011_01 educclean_baseline_01}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 23}{c |}{col 35} Delta-method
{col 23}{c |}      dy/dx{col 35}   std. err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% con{col 76}f. interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 15}D0I1R2 {c |}
{space 11}Democrats  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0706798{col 35}{space 2} .0190901{col 46}{space 1}   -3.70{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.1080956{col 76}{space 3}-.0332639
{txt}{space 9}Republicans  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0846747{col 35}{space 2} .0188621{col 46}{space 1}   -4.49{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.1216437{col 76}{space 3}-.0477056
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 13}PolInt01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0315994{col 35}{space 2}  .014938{col 46}{space 1}   -2.12{col 55}{space 3}0.034{col 63}{space 4}-.0608772{col 76}{space 3}-.0023215
{txt}{space 15}Female {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0040461{col 35}{space 2} .0093938{col 46}{space 1}   -0.43{col 55}{space 3}0.667{col 63}{space 4}-.0224576{col 76}{space 3} .0143654
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 3}raceclean_baseline {c |}
{space 15}Black  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} -.035545{col 35}{space 2} .0118299{col 46}{space 1}   -3.00{col 55}{space 3}0.003{col 63}{space 4}-.0587312{col 76}{space 3}-.0123589
{txt}{space 12}Hispanic  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0151374{col 35}{space 2} .0233069{col 46}{space 1}    0.65{col 55}{space 3}0.516{col 63}{space 4}-.0305433{col 76}{space 3} .0608181
{txt}{space 15}Other  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0139413{col 35}{space 2} .0167165{col 46}{space 1}   -0.83{col 55}{space 3}0.404{col 63}{space 4}-.0467051{col 76}{space 3} .0188225
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 7}age_baseline01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0613635{col 35}{space 2} .0291219{col 46}{space 1}    2.11{col 55}{space 3}0.035{col 63}{space 4} .0042857{col 76}{space 3} .1184413
{txt}{space 2}famincclean_2011_01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0152307{col 35}{space 2}  .017869{col 46}{space 1}   -0.85{col 55}{space 3}0.394{col 63}{space 4}-.0502533{col 76}{space 3} .0197919
{txt}educclean_baseline_01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0432935{col 35}{space 2} .0178722{col 46}{space 1}   -2.42{col 55}{space 3}0.015{col 63}{space 4}-.0783225{col 76}{space 3}-.0082646
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 87}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. estimates store incumbenteffects_2T
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Figure
. coefplot incumbenteffects_1T, bylabel("{c -(}bf:Vote For 1-Term Incumbents{c )-}") || ///
> incumbenteffects_2T, bylabel("{c -(}bf: Vote Against 2-Term Incumbents{c )-}") ///
> drop(_cons)  ///
> baselevels ///
> xtitle("                                       Effect on Probability of Voting Based Upon Incumbency Status", size(small)) ///
> xsize(6.5) ysize(4.5)  ///
> levels(95 90) ciopts(lwidth(medium medthick) recast(rspike rcap)) ///
> graphregion(margin(vsmall)) ///
> fcolor(%45) fintensity(100) lcolor(black) ///
> msize(medlarge) mlcolor(black) mlwidth(medium) ///
> xlab(, glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs14)) ///
> grid(glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs14)) ///
> xline(0, lwidth(medium) lcolor(black)) ///
> order(0.D0I1R2 1.D0I1R2 2.D0I1R2  ///
> PolInt01 Female 1.raceclean_baseline ///
> 2.raceclean_baseline 3.raceclean_baseline 4.raceclean_baseline ///
> age_baseline01 famincclean_2011_01 educclean_baseline_01) ///
> headings(0.D0I1R2= "{c -(}bf: Political Variables{c )-}" ///
> Female= "{c -(}bf: Demographic Variables{c )-}", gap(0)) ///
> coeflabels(0.D0I1R2= "Democrat" 1.D0I1R2= "Independent" 2.D0I1R2= "Republican" ///
> Female= "Female" /// label variables in the graph the following way
> PolInt01= "Interest in Politics" ///
> age_baseline01= "Age" /// 
> famincclean_2011_01= "Household Income" educclean_baseline_01= "Education Level") //
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. ****************************************
. *SUPPLEMENTAL ANALYSES
. ****************************************
. 
. *SUPPLEMENTAL APPENDIX A
. use "Lucid data.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Table A1
. tab gender_clean // gender 

     {txt}gender {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
       Male {c |}{res}      1,620       48.34       48.34
{txt}     Female {c |}{res}      1,731       51.66      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}      3,351      100.00
{txt}
{com}. sum age_clean, det // age

                             {txt}age
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}       18             18
{txt} 5%    {res}       21             18
{txt}10%    {res}       23             18       {txt}Obs         {res}      3,351
{txt}25%    {res}       32             18       {txt}Sum of wgt. {res}      3,351

{txt}50%    {res}       45                      {txt}Mean          {res} 46.48702
                        {txt}Largest       Std. dev.     {res} 17.10586
{txt}75%    {res}       61             89
{txt}90%    {res}       70             89       {txt}Variance      {res} 292.6105
{txt}95%    {res}       75             91       {txt}Skewness      {res} .1656689
{txt}99%    {res}       81             93       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 1.974489
{txt}
{com}. tab race // racial identification

           {txt}race {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 35}
          White {c |}{res}      2,395       71.47       71.47
{txt}          Black {c |}{res}        326        9.73       81.20
{txt}       Hispanic {c |}{res}        353       10.53       91.73
{txt}          Asian {c |}{res}        115        3.43       95.17
{txt}Native American {c |}{res}         50        1.49       96.66
{txt}          Other {c |}{res}        112        3.34      100.00
{txt}{hline 16}{c +}{hline 35}
          Total {c |}{res}      3,351      100.00
{txt}
{com}. tab hispanic_clean // hispanic identification

  {txt}RECODE of {c |}
   hispanic {c |}
 (hispanic) {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}      2,950       88.03       88.03
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}        401       11.97      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}      3,351      100.00
{txt}
{com}. tab D0I1R2 // party identification

      {txt}D0I1R2 {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 35}
   Democrats {c |}{res}      1,457       43.48       43.48
{txt}Independents {c |}{res}        710       21.19       64.67
{txt} Republicans {c |}{res}      1,184       35.33      100.00
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 35}
       Total {c |}{res}      3,351      100.00
{txt}
{com}. tab LibModCons // ideological self-placement

   {txt}RECODE of {c |}
 ideo (ideo) {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 35}
     Liberal {c |}{res}        905       27.01       27.01
{txt}    Moderate {c |}{res}      1,457       43.48       70.49
{txt}Conservative {c |}{res}        989       29.51      100.00
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 35}
       Total {c |}{res}      3,351      100.00
{txt}
{com}. tab region // geographic region

     {txt}region {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
         NE {c |}{res}        675       20.14       20.14
{txt}         MW {c |}{res}        623       18.59       38.73
{txt}      South {c |}{res}      1,245       37.15       75.89
{txt}       West {c |}{res}        808       24.11      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}      3,351      100.00
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *SUPPLEMENTAL APPENDIX B
. 
. *Figure B1
. logit inc_PreTreat1T_binary b1.D0I1R2 gender i.race_clean age_clean_01 hhi_clean_01 edu_clean_01

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1111.1679}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1099.7111}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1099.6936}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1099.6936}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:1,622}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:10})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:22.95}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0109}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-1099.6936}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0103}

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}inc_PreTreat1T_binary{col 23}{c |} Coefficient{col 35}  Std. err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% con{col 76}f. interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 15}D0I1R2 {c |}
{space 11}Democrats  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0876036{col 35}{space 2} .1401913{col 46}{space 1}    0.62{col 55}{space 3}0.532{col 63}{space 4}-.1871664{col 76}{space 3} .3623736
{txt}{space 9}Republicans  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0174535{col 35}{space 2} .1432659{col 46}{space 1}   -0.12{col 55}{space 3}0.903{col 63}{space 4}-.2982495{col 76}{space 3} .2633426
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 9}gender_clean {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0248544{col 35}{space 2}    .1021{col 46}{space 1}   -0.24{col 55}{space 3}0.808{col 63}{space 4}-.2249667{col 76}{space 3} .1752578
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 11}race_clean {c |}
{space 15}Black  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.1009819{col 35}{space 2} .1767396{col 46}{space 1}   -0.57{col 55}{space 3}0.568{col 63}{space 4}-.4473851{col 76}{space 3} .2454213
{txt}{space 12}Hispanic  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .3254531{col 35}{space 2} .1765544{col 46}{space 1}    1.84{col 55}{space 3}0.065{col 63}{space 4}-.0205872{col 76}{space 3} .6714934
{txt}{space 15}Asian  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .6530985{col 35}{space 2}  .327928{col 46}{space 1}    1.99{col 55}{space 3}0.046{col 63}{space 4} .0103714{col 76}{space 3} 1.295826
{txt}{space 15}Other  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .1399783{col 35}{space 2} .2503968{col 46}{space 1}    0.56{col 55}{space 3}0.576{col 63}{space 4}-.3507905{col 76}{space 3}  .630747
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 9}age_clean_01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.5565814{col 35}{space 2} .2390986{col 46}{space 1}   -2.33{col 55}{space 3}0.020{col 63}{space 4}-1.025206{col 76}{space 3}-.0879568
{txt}{space 9}hhi_clean_01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0424389{col 35}{space 2} .1921629{col 46}{space 1}   -0.22{col 55}{space 3}0.825{col 63}{space 4}-.4190713{col 76}{space 3} .3341936
{txt}{space 9}edu_clean_01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.2396359{col 35}{space 2}  .194608{col 46}{space 1}   -1.23{col 55}{space 3}0.218{col 63}{space 4}-.6210606{col 76}{space 3} .1417889
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .5672125{col 35}{space 2} .2292739{col 46}{space 1}    2.47{col 55}{space 3}0.013{col 63}{space 4}  .117844{col 76}{space 3} 1.016581
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, dydx(*)
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Average marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:1,622}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(inc_PreTreat1T_binary), predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:0.D0I1R2 2.D0I1R2 gender_clean 2.race_clean 3.race_clean 4.race_clean 5.race_clean age_clean_01 hhi_clean_01 edu_clean_01}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}D0I1R2 {c |}
{space 2}Democrats  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0212234{col 26}{space 2} .0340113{col 37}{space 1}    0.62{col 46}{space 3}0.533{col 54}{space 4}-.0454374{col 67}{space 3} .0878843
{txt}Republicans  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0042548{col 26}{space 2} .0349189{col 37}{space 1}   -0.12{col 46}{space 3}0.903{col 54}{space 4}-.0726946{col 67}{space 3}  .064185
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
gender_clean {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0060283{col 26}{space 2} .0247619{col 37}{space 1}   -0.24{col 46}{space 3}0.808{col 54}{space 4}-.0545608{col 67}{space 3} .0425042
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 2}race_clean {c |}
{space 6}Black  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0249088{col 26}{space 2} .0436805{col 37}{space 1}   -0.57{col 46}{space 3}0.569{col 54}{space 4}-.1105211{col 67}{space 3} .0607034
{txt}{space 3}Hispanic  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0779652{col 26}{space 2} .0413244{col 37}{space 1}    1.89{col 46}{space 3}0.059{col 54}{space 4}-.0030291{col 67}{space 3} .1589595
{txt}{space 6}Asian  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1502029{col 26}{space 2} .0686915{col 37}{space 1}    2.19{col 46}{space 3}0.029{col 54}{space 4}   .01557{col 67}{space 3} .2848358
{txt}{space 6}Other  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0340812{col 26}{space 2} .0604275{col 37}{space 1}    0.56{col 46}{space 3}0.573{col 54}{space 4}-.0843544{col 67}{space 3} .1525169
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
age_clean_01 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1349952{col 26}{space 2} .0576111{col 37}{space 1}   -2.34{col 46}{space 3}0.019{col 54}{space 4}-.2479109{col 67}{space 3}-.0220795
{txt}hhi_clean_01 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0102933{col 26}{space 2} .0466052{col 37}{space 1}   -0.22{col 46}{space 3}0.825{col 54}{space 4}-.1016377{col 67}{space 3} .0810512
{txt}edu_clean_01 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0581221{col 26}{space 2} .0471153{col 37}{space 1}   -1.23{col 46}{space 3}0.217{col 54}{space 4}-.1504664{col 67}{space 3} .0342222
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 78}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. estimates store mod_1t
{txt}
{com}. logit inc_PreTreat2T_binary b1.D0I1R2 gender i.race_clean age_clean_01 hhi_clean_01 edu_clean_01

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1103.9978}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1084.4038}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1084.3852}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1084.3852}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:1,622}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:10})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:39.23}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-1084.3852}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0178}

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}inc_PreTreat2T_binary{col 23}{c |} Coefficient{col 35}  Std. err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% con{col 76}f. interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 15}D0I1R2 {c |}
{space 11}Democrats  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0835208{col 35}{space 2} .1403463{col 46}{space 1}   -0.60{col 55}{space 3}0.552{col 63}{space 4}-.3585944{col 76}{space 3} .1915528
{txt}{space 9}Republicans  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}  -.13544{col 35}{space 2} .1442032{col 46}{space 1}   -0.94{col 55}{space 3}0.348{col 63}{space 4}-.4180731{col 76}{space 3} .1471931
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 9}gender_clean {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0508459{col 35}{space 2} .1030207{col 46}{space 1}    0.49{col 55}{space 3}0.622{col 63}{space 4} -.151071{col 76}{space 3} .2527627
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 11}race_clean {c |}
{space 15}Black  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0071953{col 35}{space 2} .1777137{col 46}{space 1}    0.04{col 55}{space 3}0.968{col 63}{space 4}-.3411172{col 76}{space 3} .3555078
{txt}{space 12}Hispanic  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .1678763{col 35}{space 2} .1703834{col 46}{space 1}    0.99{col 55}{space 3}0.324{col 63}{space 4} -.166069{col 76}{space 3} .5018216
{txt}{space 15}Asian  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4007516{col 35}{space 2} .3189762{col 46}{space 1}   -1.26{col 55}{space 3}0.209{col 63}{space 4}-1.025933{col 76}{space 3} .2244303
{txt}{space 15}Other  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.2357034{col 35}{space 2} .2540716{col 46}{space 1}   -0.93{col 55}{space 3}0.354{col 63}{space 4}-.7336746{col 76}{space 3} .2622679
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 9}age_clean_01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.143846{col 35}{space 2} .2443075{col 46}{space 1}   -4.68{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} -1.62268{col 76}{space 3}-.6650124
{txt}{space 9}hhi_clean_01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0772429{col 35}{space 2} .1948658{col 46}{space 1}   -0.40{col 55}{space 3}0.692{col 63}{space 4}-.4591729{col 76}{space 3} .3046871
{txt}{space 9}edu_clean_01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.1724869{col 35}{space 2} .1961418{col 46}{space 1}   -0.88{col 55}{space 3}0.379{col 63}{space 4}-.5569178{col 76}{space 3}  .211944
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .2358323{col 35}{space 2}   .22967{col 46}{space 1}    1.03{col 55}{space 3}0.305{col 63}{space 4}-.2143127{col 76}{space 3} .6859773
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, dydx(*)
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Average marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:1,622}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(inc_PreTreat2T_binary), predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:0.D0I1R2 2.D0I1R2 gender_clean 2.race_clean 3.race_clean 4.race_clean 5.race_clean age_clean_01 hhi_clean_01 edu_clean_01}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}D0I1R2 {c |}
{space 2}Democrats  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0200223{col 26}{space 2} .0337122{col 37}{space 1}   -0.59{col 46}{space 3}0.553{col 54}{space 4}-.0860971{col 67}{space 3} .0460524
{txt}Republicans  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0323471{col 26}{space 2} .0345427{col 37}{space 1}   -0.94{col 46}{space 3}0.349{col 54}{space 4}-.1000496{col 67}{space 3} .0353555
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
gender_clean {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0120974{col 26}{space 2}  .024504{col 37}{space 1}    0.49{col 46}{space 3}0.622{col 54}{space 4}-.0359295{col 67}{space 3} .0601244
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 2}race_clean {c |}
{space 6}Black  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0017194{col 26}{space 2} .0424869{col 37}{space 1}    0.04{col 46}{space 3}0.968{col 54}{space 4}-.0815534{col 67}{space 3} .0849923
{txt}{space 3}Hispanic  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0405175{col 26}{space 2} .0414414{col 37}{space 1}    0.98{col 46}{space 3}0.328{col 54}{space 4}-.0407062{col 67}{space 3} .1217412
{txt}{space 6}Asian  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0917925{col 26}{space 2} .0694265{col 37}{space 1}   -1.32{col 46}{space 3}0.186{col 54}{space 4}-.2278659{col 67}{space 3} .0442809
{txt}{space 6}Other  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0550787{col 26}{space 2} .0579685{col 37}{space 1}   -0.95{col 46}{space 3}0.342{col 54}{space 4}-.1686948{col 67}{space 3} .0585374
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
age_clean_01 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2721481{col 26}{space 2} .0566032{col 37}{space 1}   -4.81{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3830884{col 67}{space 3}-.1612078
{txt}hhi_clean_01 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0183779{col 26}{space 2} .0463546{col 37}{space 1}   -0.40{col 46}{space 3}0.692{col 54}{space 4}-.1092312{col 67}{space 3} .0724754
{txt}edu_clean_01 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0410387{col 26}{space 2} .0466237{col 37}{space 1}   -0.88{col 46}{space 3}0.379{col 54}{space 4}-.1324195{col 67}{space 3} .0503421
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 78}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. estimates store mod_2t
{txt}
{com}. 
. coefplot mod_1t, bylabel("{c -(}bf: Presidents Should Get 2 Terms{c )-}") || ///
> mod_2t, bylabel("{c -(}bf: Change Parties After 2 Terms{c )-}") ///
> drop(_cons)  ///
> baselevels ///
> xtitle("                                       Effect on Probability of Endorsing Norm", size(small)) ///
> xsize(6.5) ysize(4.5)  ///
> levels(95 90) ciopts(lwidth(medium medthick) recast(rspike rcap)) ///
> graphregion(margin(vsmall)) ///
> fcolor(%45) fintensity(100) lcolor(black) ///
> msize(medlarge) mlcolor(black) mlwidth(medium) ///
> xline(0, lwidth(medium) lcolor(black)) ///
> grid(glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs14)) ///
> xlab(, glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs14)) ///
> order(0.D0I1R2 1.D0I1R2 2.D0I1R2  ///
> gender 1.race_clean ///
> 2.race_clean  3.race_clean  4.race_clean  5.race_clean  ///
> age_clean_01 hhi_clean_01 edu_clean_01) ///
> headings(0.D0I1R2= "{c -(}bf: Political Variables{c )-}" ///
> gender= "{c -(}bf: Demographic Variables{c )-}", gap(0)) ///
> coeflabels(0.D0I1R2= "Democrat" 1.D0I1R2= "Independent" 2.D0I1R2= "Republican" ///
> gender= "Female" /// 
> age_clean_01= "Age" /// 
> hhi_clean_01= "Household Income" edu_clean_01= "Education Level") //
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *SUPPLEMENTAL APPENDIX C
. 
. *Table C1
. *Democratic candidate estimates
. logit VoteDem i.Inc0C1T2T

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1389.9507}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res: -1387.056}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1387.0559}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:2,014}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:2})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:5.79}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0553}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-1387.0559}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0021}

{txt}{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            VoteDem{col 21}{c |} Coefficient{col 33}  Std. err.{col 45}      z{col 53}   P>|z|{col 61}     [95% con{col 74}f. interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 10}Inc0C1T2T {c |}
One-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .2633507{col 33}{space 2} .1096644{col 44}{space 1}    2.40{col 53}{space 3}0.016{col 61}{space 4} .0484125{col 74}{space 3} .4782889
{txt}Two-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1226714{col 33}{space 2} .1098797{col 44}{space 1}    1.12{col 53}{space 3}0.264{col 61}{space 4} -.092689{col 74}{space 3} .3380317
{txt}{space 19} {c |}
{space 14}_cons {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.2842158{col 33}{space 2} .0778741{col 44}{space 1}   -3.65{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4}-.4368462{col 74}{space 3}-.1315854
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. *Republican candidate estimates
. logit VoteRep i.Inc0C1T2T

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1355.9309}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1353.7419}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1353.7417}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1353.7417}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:2,010}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:2})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:4.38}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.1120}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-1353.7417}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0016}

{txt}{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            VoteRep{col 21}{c |} Coefficient{col 33}  Std. err.{col 45}      z{col 53}   P>|z|{col 61}     [95% con{col 74}f. interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 10}Inc0C1T2T {c |}
One-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1888514{col 33}{space 2} .1112766{col 44}{space 1}    1.70{col 53}{space 3}0.090{col 61}{space 4}-.0292467{col 74}{space 3} .4069495
{txt}Two-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.0235938{col 33}{space 2} .1117904{col 44}{space 1}   -0.21{col 53}{space 3}0.833{col 61}{space 4} -.242699{col 74}{space 3} .1955114
{txt}{space 19} {c |}
{space 14}_cons {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.4440031{col 33}{space 2} .0790019{col 44}{space 1}   -5.62{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4}-.5988441{col 74}{space 3}-.2891622
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. *2-Term vs. 1-Term estimates
. logit VoteIncumbent i.Inc0C1T2T

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1839.4092}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1836.8354}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1836.8353}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:2,678}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:1})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:5.15}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0233}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-1836.8353}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0014}

{txt}{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}      VoteIncumbent{col 21}{c |} Coefficient{col 33}  Std. err.{col 45}      z{col 53}   P>|z|{col 61}     [95% con{col 74}f. interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 10}Inc0C1T2T {c |}
Two-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.1765721{col 33}{space 2} .0778612{col 44}{space 1}   -2.27{col 53}{space 3}0.023{col 61}{space 4}-.3291772{col 74}{space 3} -.023967
{txt}{space 14}_cons {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.1367468{col 33}{space 2} .0549072{col 44}{space 1}   -2.49{col 53}{space 3}0.013{col 61}{space 4} -.244363{col 74}{space 3}-.0291307
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. *Figure C1
. logit VoteIncumbent i.Inc0C1T2T##i.askedpretreatQs if Inc0C1T2T>=1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1839.4092}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1836.3833}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1836.3832}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:2,678}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:3})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:6.05}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.1091}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-1836.3832}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0016}

{txt}{hline 26}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            VoteIncumbent{col 27}{c |} Coefficient{col 39}  Std. err.{col 51}      z{col 59}   P>|z|{col 67}     [95% con{col 80}f. interval]
{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 16}Inc0C1T2T {c |}
{space 6}Two-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-.2039075{col 39}{space 2} .1101731{col 50}{space 1}   -1.85{col 59}{space 3}0.064{col 67}{space 4}-.4198427{col 80}{space 3} .0120277
{txt}{space 25} {c |}
{space 10}askedpretreatQs {c |}
{space 19}Asked  {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-.0965808{col 39}{space 2} .1098579{col 50}{space 1}   -0.88{col 59}{space 3}0.379{col 67}{space 4}-.3118984{col 80}{space 3} .1187367
{txt}{space 25} {c |}
Inc0C1T2T#askedpretreatQs {c |}
Two-Term Incumbent#Asked  {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} .0565984{col 39}{space 2} .1557663{col 50}{space 1}    0.36{col 59}{space 3}0.716{col 67}{space 4}-.2486979{col 80}{space 3} .3618947
{txt}{space 25} {c |}
{space 20}_cons {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-.0890796{col 39}{space 2} .0771135{col 50}{space 1}   -1.16{col 59}{space 3}0.248{col 67}{space 4}-.2402194{col 80}{space 3} .0620602
{txt}{hline 26}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, dydx(i.Inc0C1T2T) at(askedpretreatQs=(0 1))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Conditional marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:2,678}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(VoteIncumbent), predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:2.Inc0C1T2T}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 7:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 15:askedpretreatQs} = {res:{ralign 1:0}}
{lalign 7:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 15:askedpretreatQs} = {res:{ralign 1:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}{res}1.Inc0C1T2T {col 14}{txt}{c |}  (base outcome)
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}2.Inc0C1T2T  {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0504721{col 26}{space 2} .0272206{col 37}{space 1}   -1.85{col 46}{space 3}0.064{col 54}{space 4}-.1038234{col 67}{space 3} .0028792
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0361995{col 26}{space 2} .0270397{col 37}{space 1}   -1.34{col 46}{space 3}0.181{col 54}{space 4}-.0891963{col 67}{space 3} .0167973
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 78}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, scheme(stcolor) recastci(rarea) yline(0, lcolor(red)) ciopts(fcolor(%50)) ///
> plotopts(msize(medlarge) mlcolor(black) lwidth(medium)) ///
> xtitle(Respondent Asked About Norm Pretreatment?) ///
> ytitle("{c -(}bf: Effect on Change in pr(Vote Incumbent){c )-}") ///
> xlab(, glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs14)) ///
> ylab(, glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs14)) ///
> graphregion(margin(medium)) ///
> xsize(6.5) ysize(4.5) ///
> title("")
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:askedpretreatQs}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *SUPPLEMENTAL APPENDIX D
. 
. *Figure D1
. logit VoteDem i.Inc0C1T2T##i.D0I1R2

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1389.9507}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-846.09799}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-839.59144}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-839.52939}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-839.52938}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 56}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:2,014}
{txt}{col 56}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:8})}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:1100.84}
{txt}{col 56}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-839.52938}{txt}{col 56}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:0.3960}

{txt}{hline 33}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                         VoteDem{col 34}{c |} Coefficient{col 46}  Std. err.{col 58}      z{col 66}   P>|z|{col 74}     [95% con{col 87}f. interval]
{hline 33}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}Inc0C1T2T {c |}
{space 13}One-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2} .2905743{col 46}{space 2} .2281244{col 57}{space 1}    1.27{col 66}{space 3}0.203{col 74}{space 4}-.1565412{col 87}{space 3} .7376898
{txt}{space 13}Two-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2}   .23097{col 46}{space 2} .2271565{col 57}{space 1}    1.02{col 66}{space 3}0.309{col 74}{space 4}-.2142486{col 87}{space 3} .6761887
{txt}{space 32} {c |}
{space 26}D0I1R2 {c |}
{space 19}Independents  {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2}-2.725135{col 46}{space 2} .2518399{col 57}{space 1}  -10.82{col 66}{space 3}0.000{col 74}{space 4}-3.218732{col 87}{space 3}-2.231537
{txt}{space 20}Republicans  {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2}-4.196759{col 46}{space 2} .3011632{col 57}{space 1}  -13.94{col 66}{space 3}0.000{col 74}{space 4}-4.787028{col 87}{space 3} -3.60649
{txt}{space 32} {c |}
{space 16}Inc0C1T2T#D0I1R2 {c |}
One-Term Incumbent#Independents  {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2} .0849692{col 46}{space 2} .3530169{col 57}{space 1}    0.24{col 66}{space 3}0.810{col 74}{space 4}-.6069312{col 87}{space 3} .7768695
{txt}{space 1}One-Term Incumbent#Republicans  {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2} .4602519{col 46}{space 2} .3966092{col 57}{space 1}    1.16{col 66}{space 3}0.246{col 74}{space 4}-.3170878{col 87}{space 3} 1.237592
{txt}Two-Term Incumbent#Independents  {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2}-.0222328{col 46}{space 2}  .357162{col 57}{space 1}   -0.06{col 66}{space 3}0.950{col 74}{space 4}-.7222575{col 87}{space 3} .6777919
{txt}{space 1}Two-Term Incumbent#Republicans  {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2}  .067871{col 46}{space 2} .4131457{col 57}{space 1}    0.16{col 66}{space 3}0.870{col 74}{space 4}-.7418797{col 87}{space 3} .8776217
{txt}{space 32} {c |}
{space 27}_cons {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2} 1.548813{col 46}{space 2} .1541898{col 57}{space 1}   10.04{col 66}{space 3}0.000{col 74}{space 4} 1.246607{col 87}{space 3}  1.85102
{txt}{hline 33}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, dydx(i.Inc0C1T2T) at(D0I1R2=(0 1 2)) level(95) 
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Conditional marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:2,014}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(VoteDem), predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:1.Inc0C1T2T 2.Inc0C1T2T}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 7:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 6:D0I1R2} = {res:{ralign 1:0}}
{lalign 7:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 6:D0I1R2} = {res:{ralign 1:1}}
{lalign 7:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 6:D0I1R2} = {res:{ralign 1:2}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}{res}0.Inc0C1T2T {col 14}{txt}{c |}  (base outcome)
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}1.Inc0C1T2T  {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .038134{col 26}{space 2} .0298736{col 37}{space 1}    1.28{col 46}{space 3}0.202{col 54}{space 4}-.0204172{col 67}{space 3} .0966852
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0741449{col 26}{space 2} .0528467{col 37}{space 1}    1.40{col 46}{space 3}0.161{col 54}{space 4}-.0294327{col 67}{space 3} .1777224
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0643191{col 26}{space 2} .0273547{col 37}{space 1}    2.35{col 46}{space 3}0.019{col 54}{space 4} .0107049{col 67}{space 3} .1179333
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}2.Inc0C1T2T  {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0309278{col 26}{space 2} .0303497{col 37}{space 1}    1.02{col 46}{space 3}0.308{col 54}{space 4}-.0285565{col 67}{space 3} .0904121
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .039648{col 26}{space 2} .0522756{col 37}{space 1}    0.76{col 46}{space 3}0.448{col 54}{space 4}-.0628102{col 67}{space 3} .1421063
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0210212{col 26}{space 2} .0241909{col 37}{space 1}    0.87{col 46}{space 3}0.385{col 54}{space 4}-.0263921{col 67}{space 3} .0684346
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 78}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, yline(0) xtitle("") title("") ///
> ytitle(Effect of Treatment on pr(Vote for Democratic Candidate)) ///
> xsize(6.5) ysize(4.5) xlab(, labsize(small)) graphregion(margin(medlarge)) ///
> plot( , label("1-Term vs. Control" "2-Term vs. Control")) 
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:D0I1R2 _deriv}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. *Figure D2
. logit VoteRep i.Inc0C1T2T##i.D0I1R2 

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1355.9309}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-817.21734}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-808.96015}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:  -808.726}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-808.72586}  
Iteration 5:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-808.72586}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 56}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:2,010}
{txt}{col 56}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:8})}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:1094.41}
{txt}{col 56}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-808.72586}{txt}{col 56}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:0.4036}

{txt}{hline 33}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                         VoteRep{col 34}{c |} Coefficient{col 46}  Std. err.{col 58}      z{col 66}   P>|z|{col 74}     [95% con{col 87}f. interval]
{hline 33}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}Inc0C1T2T {c |}
{space 13}One-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2} .6082906{col 46}{space 2} .2986257{col 57}{space 1}    2.04{col 66}{space 3}0.042{col 74}{space 4}  .022995{col 87}{space 3} 1.193586
{txt}{space 13}Two-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2} .3038015{col 46}{space 2} .3049193{col 57}{space 1}    1.00{col 66}{space 3}0.319{col 74}{space 4}-.2938293{col 87}{space 3} .9014322
{txt}{space 32} {c |}
{space 26}D0I1R2 {c |}
{space 19}Independents  {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2} 1.507774{col 46}{space 2} .3029608{col 57}{space 1}    4.98{col 66}{space 3}0.000{col 74}{space 4} .9139819{col 87}{space 3} 2.101567
{txt}{space 20}Republicans  {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2} 4.417564{col 46}{space 2} .2964954{col 57}{space 1}   14.90{col 66}{space 3}0.000{col 74}{space 4} 3.836444{col 87}{space 3} 4.998684
{txt}{space 32} {c |}
{space 16}Inc0C1T2T#D0I1R2 {c |}
One-Term Incumbent#Independents  {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2}-.2777268{col 46}{space 2}  .399755{col 57}{space 1}   -0.69{col 66}{space 3}0.487{col 74}{space 4}-1.061232{col 87}{space 3} .5057786
{txt}{space 1}One-Term Incumbent#Republicans  {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2}-.7517614{col 46}{space 2} .3912975{col 57}{space 1}   -1.92{col 66}{space 3}0.055{col 74}{space 4} -1.51869{col 87}{space 3} .0151677
{txt}Two-Term Incumbent#Independents  {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2}-.1984409{col 46}{space 2} .4066082{col 57}{space 1}   -0.49{col 66}{space 3}0.626{col 74}{space 4}-.9953784{col 87}{space 3} .5984965
{txt}{space 1}Two-Term Incumbent#Republicans  {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2}-.1533205{col 46}{space 2} .4116316{col 57}{space 1}   -0.37{col 66}{space 3}0.710{col 74}{space 4}-.9601036{col 87}{space 3} .6534626
{txt}{space 32} {c |}
{space 27}_cons {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2}-2.606387{col 46}{space 2} .2317111{col 57}{space 1}  -11.25{col 66}{space 3}0.000{col 74}{space 4}-3.060532{col 87}{space 3}-2.152241
{txt}{hline 33}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, dydx(i.Inc0C1T2T) at(D0I1R2=(0 1 2)) level(95)
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Conditional marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:2,010}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(VoteRep), predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:1.Inc0C1T2T 2.Inc0C1T2T}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 7:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 6:D0I1R2} = {res:{ralign 1:0}}
{lalign 7:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 6:D0I1R2} = {res:{ralign 1:1}}
{lalign 7:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 6:D0I1R2} = {res:{ralign 1:2}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}{res}0.Inc0C1T2T {col 14}{txt}{c |}  (base outcome)
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}1.Inc0C1T2T  {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0506745{col 26}{space 2} .0247444{col 37}{space 1}    2.05{col 46}{space 3}0.041{col 54}{space 4} .0021764{col 67}{space 3} .0991725
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0669014{col 26}{space 2} .0535141{col 37}{space 1}    1.25{col 46}{space 3}0.211{col 54}{space 4}-.0379843{col 67}{space 3} .1717871
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0182343{col 26}{space 2} .0320764{col 37}{space 1}   -0.57{col 46}{space 3}0.570{col 54}{space 4}-.0811029{col 67}{space 3} .0446343
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}2.Inc0C1T2T  {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0221806{col 26}{space 2} .0220969{col 37}{space 1}    1.00{col 46}{space 3}0.315{col 54}{space 4}-.0211286{col 67}{space 3} .0654898
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0202703{col 26}{space 2} .0516903{col 37}{space 1}    0.39{col 46}{space 3}0.695{col 54}{space 4}-.0810408{col 67}{space 3} .1215813
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0172082{col 26}{space 2} .0315047{col 37}{space 1}    0.55{col 46}{space 3}0.585{col 54}{space 4}-.0445399{col 67}{space 3} .0789563
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 78}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, yline(0) xtitle("") title("") ///
> ytitle(Effect of Treatment on pr(Vote for Republican Candidate)) ///
> xsize(6.5) ysize(4.5) ylab(-.1(.05).2) xlab(, labsize(small)) graphregion(margin(medlarge)) ///
> plot( , label("1-Term vs. Control" "2-Term vs. Control")) 
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:D0I1R2 _deriv}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. *Figure D3
. logit VoteIncumbent i.Inc0C1T2T##i.D0I1R2 if Inc0C1T2T>=1  

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1839.4092}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1802.3583}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1802.2191}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1802.2191}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:2,678}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:5})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:74.38}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-1802.2191}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0202}

{txt}{hline 33}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                   VoteIncumbent{col 34}{c |} Coefficient{col 46}  Std. err.{col 58}      z{col 66}   P>|z|{col 74}     [95% con{col 87}f. interval]
{hline 33}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}Inc0C1T2T {c |}
{space 13}Two-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2}-.1963975{col 46}{space 2}  .117363{col 57}{space 1}   -1.67{col 66}{space 3}0.094{col 74}{space 4}-.4264248{col 87}{space 3} .0336299
{txt}{space 32} {c |}
{space 26}D0I1R2 {c |}
{space 19}Independents  {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2}-.8302266{col 46}{space 2} .1530443{col 57}{space 1}   -5.42{col 66}{space 3}0.000{col 74}{space 4}-1.130188{col 87}{space 3}-.5302654
{txt}{space 20}Republicans  {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2}-.0375646{col 46}{space 2} .1239245{col 57}{space 1}   -0.30{col 66}{space 3}0.762{col 74}{space 4}-.2804522{col 87}{space 3} .2053229
{txt}{space 32} {c |}
{space 16}Inc0C1T2T#D0I1R2 {c |}
Two-Term Incumbent#Independents  {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2}-.0000685{col 46}{space 2} .2185554{col 57}{space 1}   -0.00{col 66}{space 3}1.000{col 74}{space 4}-.4284291{col 87}{space 3} .4282922
{txt}{space 1}Two-Term Incumbent#Republicans  {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2} .0400025{col 46}{space 2}  .175546{col 57}{space 1}    0.23{col 66}{space 3}0.820{col 74}{space 4}-.3040614{col 87}{space 3} .3840663
{txt}{space 32} {c |}
{space 27}_cons {c |}{col 34}{res}{space 2} .0458634{col 46}{space 2} .0840142{col 57}{space 1}    0.55{col 66}{space 3}0.585{col 74}{space 4}-.1188014{col 87}{space 3} .2105282
{txt}{hline 33}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, dydx(i.Inc0C1T2T) at(D0I1R2=(0 1 2)) level(95)
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Conditional marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:2,678}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(VoteIncumbent), predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:2.Inc0C1T2T}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 7:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 6:D0I1R2} = {res:{ralign 1:0}}
{lalign 7:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 6:D0I1R2} = {res:{ralign 1:1}}
{lalign 7:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 6:D0I1R2} = {res:{ralign 1:2}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}{res}1.Inc0C1T2T {col 14}{txt}{c |}  (base outcome)
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}2.Inc0C1T2T  {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0490264{col 26}{space 2} .0292522{col 37}{space 1}   -1.68{col 46}{space 3}0.094{col 54}{space 4}-.1063597{col 67}{space 3} .0083068
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.040653{col 26}{space 2} .0380943{col 37}{space 1}   -1.07{col 46}{space 3}0.286{col 54}{space 4}-.1153164{col 67}{space 3} .0340104
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0390312{col 26}{space 2} .0325449{col 37}{space 1}   -1.20{col 46}{space 3}0.230{col 54}{space 4}-.1028181{col 67}{space 3} .0247557
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 78}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, yline(0) xtitle("") title("") ///
> xsize(6.5) ysize(4.5) xlab(, labsize(small)) graphregion(margin(medlarge))
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:D0I1R2}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. *Figure D4
. *Dem Candidate:  1T vs. Control
. logit VoteDem i.Inc0C1T2T##c.inc_PreTreat1T_01 if Inc0C1T2T<=1  // null interactions might be partly due to partisans

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-453.85539}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-453.25904}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-453.25902}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:657}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:3})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:1.19}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.7547}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-453.25902}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0013}

{txt}{hline 30}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                      VoteDem{col 31}{c |} Coefficient{col 43}  Std. err.{col 55}      z{col 63}   P>|z|{col 71}     [95% con{col 84}f. interval]
{hline 30}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 20}Inc0C1T2T {c |}
{space 10}One-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 31}{res}{space 2} .1552174{col 43}{space 2} .2902856{col 54}{space 1}    0.53{col 63}{space 3}0.593{col 71}{space 4}-.4137319{col 84}{space 3} .7241666
{txt}{space 12}inc_PreTreat1T_01 {c |}{col 31}{res}{space 2} .2133458{col 43}{space 2} .3250224{col 54}{space 1}    0.66{col 63}{space 3}0.512{col 71}{space 4}-.4236864{col 84}{space 3}  .850378
{txt}{space 29} {c |}
Inc0C1T2T#c.inc_PreTreat1T_01 {c |}
{space 10}One-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 31}{res}{space 2}-.0589668{col 43}{space 2} .4711316{col 54}{space 1}   -0.13{col 63}{space 3}0.900{col 71}{space 4}-.9823677{col 84}{space 3} .8644341
{txt}{space 29} {c |}
{space 24}_cons {c |}{col 31}{res}{space 2}-.3110098{col 43}{space 2} .2081123{col 54}{space 1}   -1.49{col 63}{space 3}0.135{col 71}{space 4}-.7189023{col 84}{space 3} .0968828
{txt}{hline 30}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, dydx(Inc0C1T2T) at(inc_PreTreat1T_01=(0(.2)1)) saving(normsgraph1D, replace)
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Conditional marginal effects{col 60}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 73} = {res}{ralign 3:657}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(VoteDem), predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:1.Inc0C1T2T}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 7:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat1~01} = {res:{ralign 2:0}}
{lalign 7:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat1~01} = {res:{ralign 2:.2}}
{lalign 7:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat1~01} = {res:{ralign 2:.4}}
{lalign 7:4._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat1~01} = {res:{ralign 2:.6}}
{lalign 7:5._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat1~01} = {res:{ralign 2:.8}}
{lalign 7:6._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat1~01} = {res:{ralign 2:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}{res}0.Inc0C1T2T {col 14}{txt}{c |}  (base outcome)
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}1.Inc0C1T2T  {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0382622{col 26}{space 2} .0714735{col 37}{space 1}    0.54{col 46}{space 3}0.592{col 54}{space 4}-.1018233{col 67}{space 3} .1783477
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0354969{col 26}{space 2} .0536635{col 37}{space 1}    0.66{col 46}{space 3}0.508{col 54}{space 4}-.0696817{col 67}{space 3} .1406754
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0326867{col 26}{space 2} .0413148{col 37}{space 1}    0.79{col 46}{space 3}0.429{col 54}{space 4}-.0482889{col 67}{space 3} .1136624
{txt}{space 10}4  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0298373{col 26}{space 2} .0402052{col 37}{space 1}    0.74{col 46}{space 3}0.458{col 54}{space 4}-.0489634{col 67}{space 3} .1086381
{txt}{space 10}5  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0269542{col 26}{space 2} .0512499{col 37}{space 1}    0.53{col 46}{space 3}0.599{col 54}{space 4}-.0734937{col 67}{space 3} .1274021
{txt}{space 10}6  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0240432{col 26}{space 2} .0688955{col 37}{space 1}    0.35{col 46}{space 3}0.727{col 54}{space 4}-.1109894{col 67}{space 3} .1590759
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 78}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
normsgraph1D.dta{rm}
not found)
{p_end}

{com}. marginsplot,  yline(0) title("{c -(}bf: 1T vs. Control{c )-}", pos(12) span box) xtitle("Give Incumbent Party Two Terms Norm")  ///
> ytitle("Effect on pr(Vote for Democratic Incumbent)") ///
> saving(normsgraph1D.gph, replace)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:inc_PreTreat1T_01}{p_end}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
normsgraph1D.gph{rm}
not found)
{p_end}
{res}{txt}file {bf:normsgraph1D.gph} saved

{com}. 
. *Republican Candidate: 1T vs. Control
. logit VoteRep i.Inc0C1T2T##c.inc_PreTreat1T_01 if Inc0C1T2T<=1  // null interactions might be partly due to partisans

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-444.71511}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-443.34872}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-443.34828}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-443.34828}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:658}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:3})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:2.73}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.4345}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-443.34828}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0031}

{txt}{hline 30}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                      VoteRep{col 31}{c |} Coefficient{col 43}  Std. err.{col 55}      z{col 63}   P>|z|{col 71}     [95% con{col 84}f. interval]
{hline 30}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 20}Inc0C1T2T {c |}
{space 10}One-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 31}{res}{space 2} .1655415{col 43}{space 2} .3041216{col 54}{space 1}    0.54{col 63}{space 3}0.586{col 71}{space 4}-.4305259{col 84}{space 3} .7616089
{txt}{space 12}inc_PreTreat1T_01 {c |}{col 31}{res}{space 2} .3025705{col 43}{space 2} .3330405{col 54}{space 1}    0.91{col 63}{space 3}0.364{col 71}{space 4}-.3501769{col 84}{space 3} .9553179
{txt}{space 29} {c |}
Inc0C1T2T#c.inc_PreTreat1T_01 {c |}
{space 10}One-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 31}{res}{space 2} .0134973{col 43}{space 2} .4843898{col 54}{space 1}    0.03{col 63}{space 3}0.978{col 71}{space 4}-.9358892{col 84}{space 3} .9628839
{txt}{space 29} {c |}
{space 24}_cons {c |}{col 31}{res}{space 2}-.6234355{col 43}{space 2} .2146849{col 54}{space 1}   -2.90{col 63}{space 3}0.004{col 71}{space 4} -1.04421{col 84}{space 3} -.202661
{txt}{hline 30}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, dydx(Inc0C1T2T) at(inc_PreTreat1T_01=(0(.2)1)) saving(normsgraph1R, replace)
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Conditional marginal effects{col 60}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 73} = {res}{ralign 3:658}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(VoteRep), predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:1.Inc0C1T2T}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 7:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat1~01} = {res:{ralign 2:0}}
{lalign 7:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat1~01} = {res:{ralign 2:.2}}
{lalign 7:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat1~01} = {res:{ralign 2:.4}}
{lalign 7:4._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat1~01} = {res:{ralign 2:.6}}
{lalign 7:5._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat1~01} = {res:{ralign 2:.8}}
{lalign 7:6._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat1~01} = {res:{ralign 2:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}{res}0.Inc0C1T2T {col 14}{txt}{c |}  (base outcome)
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}1.Inc0C1T2T  {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .038485{col 26}{space 2} .0706603{col 37}{space 1}    0.54{col 46}{space 3}0.586{col 54}{space 4}-.1000066{col 67}{space 3} .1769766
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0397193{col 26}{space 2} .0536009{col 37}{space 1}    0.74{col 46}{space 3}0.459{col 54}{space 4}-.0653365{col 67}{space 3} .1447751
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0409086{col 26}{space 2} .0411151{col 37}{space 1}    0.99{col 46}{space 3}0.320{col 54}{space 4}-.0396755{col 67}{space 3} .1214928
{txt}{space 10}4  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .042046{col 26}{space 2} .0392403{col 37}{space 1}    1.07{col 46}{space 3}0.284{col 54}{space 4}-.0348635{col 67}{space 3} .1189555
{txt}{space 10}5  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0431246{col 26}{space 2} .0499716{col 37}{space 1}    0.86{col 46}{space 3}0.388{col 54}{space 4}-.0548179{col 67}{space 3} .1410671
{txt}{space 10}6  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0441378{col 26}{space 2} .0679479{col 37}{space 1}    0.65{col 46}{space 3}0.516{col 54}{space 4}-.0890376{col 67}{space 3} .1773132
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 78}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
normsgraph1R.dta{rm}
not found)
{p_end}

{com}. marginsplot,  yline(0) title("{c -(}bf: 1T vs. Control{c )-}", pos(12) span box) xtitle("Give Incumbent Party Two Terms Norm")  ///
> ytitle("Effect on pr(Vote for Republican Incumbent)") ///
> plotopts(lcolor(red) mcolor(red)) ciopts(color(red)) ///
> saving(normsgraph1R.gph, replace)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:inc_PreTreat1T_01}{p_end}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
normsgraph1R.gph{rm}
not found)
{p_end}
{res}{txt}file {bf:normsgraph1R.gph} saved

{com}. 
. *Combine graphs
. combomarginsplot normsgraph1D normsgraph1R,  ///
> labels("Democratic Candidate" "Republican Candidate") ///
> ytitle("{c -(}bf:Conditional Effect of 1-Term on pr(Vote for the Candidate){c )-}", size(small)) ///
> xtitle("{c -(}bf:Norm: Incumbent Party Should Get Two Terms{c )-}", size(small)) ///
> xsize(6.5) ysize(4.5) ///
> file1opts(lcolor(%90) lwidth(medium) msize(large) msymbol(circle) mcolor(%90)) ///
> file2opts(lcolor("252 0 0"%90) lwidth(medium) msize(large) msymbol(triangle) mcolor("252 0 0"%90) mlcolor(orange)) ///
> fileci1opts(lwidth(medium) lcolor()) ///
> fileci2opts(lwidth(medium) lcolor("252 0 0%60")) ///
> graphregion(margin(medium)) ///
> xlab(0(.2)1, glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs14)) ///
> ylab(, glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs14)) ///
> yline(0) ///
> plotregion(margin(large)) ///
> legend (ring(1) pos(3) col(1)) title("") saving(combomargins_norminteraction1Tgraphs.gph, replace)
{res}
{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: inc_PreTreat1T_01 _filenumber{p_end}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
combomargins_norminteraction1Tgraphs.gph{rm}
not found)
{p_end}
{res}{txt}file {bf:combomargins_norminteraction1Tgraphs.gph} saved

{com}. 
. *Figure D5
. *Dem candidate:  2T vs. Control
. logit VoteDem i.Inc0C1T2T##c.inc_PreTreat_2T_01 if Inc0C1T2T!=1  // null interactions might be partly due to partisans

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-464.28626}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-463.35022}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-463.35017}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-463.35017}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:676}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:3})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:1.87}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.5994}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-463.35017}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0020}

{txt}{hline 31}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                       VoteDem{col 32}{c |} Coefficient{col 44}  Std. err.{col 56}      z{col 64}   P>|z|{col 72}     [95% con{col 85}f. interval]
{hline 31}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 21}Inc0C1T2T {c |}
{space 11}Two-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-.0594601{col 44}{space 2} .2564673{col 55}{space 1}   -0.23{col 64}{space 3}0.817{col 72}{space 4}-.5621267{col 85}{space 3} .4432066
{txt}{space 12}inc_PreTreat_2T_01 {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-.3221302{col 44}{space 2} .3425534{col 55}{space 1}   -0.94{col 64}{space 3}0.347{col 72}{space 4}-.9935226{col 85}{space 3} .3492622
{txt}{space 30} {c |}
Inc0C1T2T#c.inc_PreTreat_2T_01 {c |}
{space 11}Two-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} .0198008{col 44}{space 2}  .475591{col 55}{space 1}    0.04{col 64}{space 3}0.967{col 72}{space 4}-.9123405{col 85}{space 3}  .951942
{txt}{space 30} {c |}
{space 25}_cons {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-.0605778{col 44}{space 2} .1811839{col 55}{space 1}   -0.33{col 64}{space 3}0.738{col 72}{space 4}-.4156917{col 85}{space 3}  .294536
{txt}{hline 31}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, dydx(Inc0C1T2T) at(inc_PreTreat_2T_01=(0(.2)1)) saving(normsgraph2D, replace)
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Conditional marginal effects{col 60}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 73} = {res}{ralign 3:676}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(VoteDem), predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:2.Inc0C1T2T}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 7:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat_~01} = {res:{ralign 2:0}}
{lalign 7:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat_~01} = {res:{ralign 2:.2}}
{lalign 7:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat_~01} = {res:{ralign 2:.4}}
{lalign 7:4._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat_~01} = {res:{ralign 2:.6}}
{lalign 7:5._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat_~01} = {res:{ralign 2:.8}}
{lalign 7:6._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat_~01} = {res:{ralign 2:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}{res}0.Inc0C1T2T {col 14}{txt}{c |}  (base outcome)
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}2.Inc0C1T2T  {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0148337{col 26}{space 2} .0639721{col 37}{space 1}   -0.23{col 46}{space 3}0.817{col 54}{space 4}-.1402167{col 67}{space 3} .1105494
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0137935{col 26}{space 2} .0471369{col 37}{space 1}   -0.29{col 46}{space 3}0.770{col 54}{space 4}-.1061801{col 67}{space 3} .0785931
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0127362{col 26}{space 2}  .038505{col 37}{space 1}   -0.33{col 46}{space 3}0.741{col 54}{space 4}-.0882045{col 67}{space 3} .0627321
{txt}{space 10}4  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0116681{col 26}{space 2} .0429569{col 37}{space 1}   -0.27{col 46}{space 3}0.786{col 54}{space 4} -.095862{col 67}{space 3} .0725259
{txt}{space 10}5  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0105951{col 26}{space 2} .0570624{col 37}{space 1}   -0.19{col 46}{space 3}0.853{col 54}{space 4}-.1224354{col 67}{space 3} .1012451
{txt}{space 10}6  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0095235{col 26}{space 2} .0750946{col 37}{space 1}   -0.13{col 46}{space 3}0.899{col 54}{space 4}-.1567063{col 67}{space 3} .1376593
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 78}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
normsgraph2D.dta{rm}
not found)
{p_end}

{com}. marginsplot,  yline(0) title("{c -(}bf: 2T vs. Control{c )-}", pos(12) span box) xtitle("Give Incumbent Party Two Terms Norm")  ///
> ytitle("Effect on pr(Vote for Democratic Incumbent)") ///
> saving(normsgraph2D.gph, replace)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:inc_PreTreat_2T_01}{p_end}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
normsgraph2D.gph{rm}
not found)
{p_end}
{res}{txt}file {bf:normsgraph2D.gph} saved

{com}. 
. *Rep candidate:  2T vs. Control 
. logit VoteRep i.Inc0C1T2T##c.inc_PreTreat_2T_01 if Inc0C1T2T!=1  // null interactions might be partly due to partisans

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-445.44695}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-444.14687}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res: -444.1464}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res: -444.1464}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:665}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:3})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:2.60}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.4573}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 9:-444.1464}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0029}

{txt}{hline 31}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                       VoteRep{col 32}{c |} Coefficient{col 44}  Std. err.{col 56}      z{col 64}   P>|z|{col 72}     [95% con{col 85}f. interval]
{hline 31}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 21}Inc0C1T2T {c |}
{space 11}Two-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} .2919936{col 44}{space 2} .2580087{col 55}{space 1}    1.13{col 64}{space 3}0.258{col 72}{space 4}-.2136941{col 85}{space 3} .7976814
{txt}{space 12}inc_PreTreat_2T_01 {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} .0594535{col 44}{space 2} .3483783{col 55}{space 1}    0.17{col 64}{space 3}0.864{col 72}{space 4}-.6233553{col 85}{space 3} .7422624
{txt}{space 30} {c |}
Inc0C1T2T#c.inc_PreTreat_2T_01 {c |}
{space 11}Two-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-.5968858{col 44}{space 2} .4881349{col 55}{space 1}   -1.22{col 64}{space 3}0.221{col 72}{space 4}-1.553613{col 85}{space 3} .3598411
{txt}{space 30} {c |}
{space 25}_cons {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-.4842101{col 44}{space 2} .1858523{col 55}{space 1}   -2.61{col 64}{space 3}0.009{col 72}{space 4} -.848474{col 85}{space 3}-.1199462
{txt}{hline 31}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, dydx(Inc0C1T2T) at(inc_PreTreat_2T_01=(0(.2)1)) saving(normsgraph2R, replace)
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Conditional marginal effects{col 60}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 73} = {res}{ralign 3:665}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(VoteRep), predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:2.Inc0C1T2T}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 7:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat_~01} = {res:{ralign 2:0}}
{lalign 7:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat_~01} = {res:{ralign 2:.2}}
{lalign 7:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat_~01} = {res:{ralign 2:.4}}
{lalign 7:4._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat_~01} = {res:{ralign 2:.6}}
{lalign 7:5._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat_~01} = {res:{ralign 2:.8}}
{lalign 7:6._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat_~01} = {res:{ralign 2:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}{res}0.Inc0C1T2T {col 14}{txt}{c |}  (base outcome)
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}2.Inc0C1T2T  {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0708348{col 26}{space 2} .0623483{col 37}{space 1}    1.14{col 46}{space 3}0.256{col 54}{space 4}-.0513655{col 67}{space 3} .1930352
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0415627{col 26}{space 2} .0459012{col 37}{space 1}    0.91{col 46}{space 3}0.365{col 54}{space 4} -.048402{col 67}{space 3} .1315274
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0127021{col 26}{space 2} .0380197{col 37}{space 1}    0.33{col 46}{space 3}0.738{col 54}{space 4}-.0618151{col 67}{space 3} .0872194
{txt}{space 10}4  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0156104{col 26}{space 2} .0431383{col 37}{space 1}   -0.36{col 46}{space 3}0.717{col 54}{space 4}  -.10016{col 67}{space 3} .0689392
{txt}{space 10}5  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0432503{col 26}{space 2} .0572827{col 37}{space 1}   -0.76{col 46}{space 3}0.450{col 54}{space 4}-.1555223{col 67}{space 3} .0690217
{txt}{space 10}6  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0701073{col 26}{space 2} .0749277{col 37}{space 1}   -0.94{col 46}{space 3}0.349{col 54}{space 4}-.2169628{col 67}{space 3} .0767483
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 78}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
normsgraph2R.dta{rm}
not found)
{p_end}

{com}. marginsplot,  yline(0) title("{c -(}bf: 2T vs. Control{c )-}", pos(12) span box) xtitle("Give Incumbent Party Two Terms Norm")  ///
> ytitle("Effect on pr(Vote for Republican Incumbent)") ///
> plotopts(lcolor(red) mcolor(red)) ciopts(color(red)) ///
> saving(normsgraph2R.gph, replace)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:inc_PreTreat_2T_01}{p_end}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
normsgraph2R.gph{rm}
not found)
{p_end}
{res}{txt}file {bf:normsgraph2R.gph} saved

{com}. 
. *Combined graphs
. combomarginsplot normsgraph2D normsgraph2R,  ///
> labels("Democratic Candidate" "Republican Candidate") ///
> ytitle("{c -(}bf:Conditional Effect of 2-Term on pr(Vote for the Candidate){c )-}", size(small)) ///
> xtitle("{c -(}bf:Norm: Change Parties After Two Terms{c )-}", size(small)) ///
> xsize(6.5) ysize(4.5) ///
> file1opts(lcolor(%90) lwidth(medium) msize(large) msymbol(circle) mcolor(%90)) ///
> file2opts(lcolor("252 0 0"%90) lwidth(medium) msize(large) msymbol(triangle) mcolor("252 0 0"%90) mlcolor(orange)) ///
> fileci1opts(lwidth(medium) lcolor()) ///
> fileci2opts(lwidth(medium) lcolor("252 0 0%60")) ///
> graphregion(margin(medium)) ///
> xlab(0(.2)1, glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs14)) ///
> ylab(, glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs14)) ///
> yline(0) ///
> plotregion(margin(large)) ///
> legend (ring(1) pos(3) col(1)) title("") saving(combomargins_norminteraction2Tgraphs.gph, replace)
{res}
{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: inc_PreTreat_2T_01 _filenumber{p_end}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
combomargins_norminteraction2Tgraphs.gph{rm}
not found)
{p_end}
{res}{txt}file {bf:combomargins_norminteraction2Tgraphs.gph} saved

{com}. 
. *Figure D6
. logit VoteIncumbent i.Inc1T2T##c.inc_PreTreat_2T_01

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-920.29474}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-917.91736}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-917.91672}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-917.91672}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:1,344}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:3})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:4.76}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.1906}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-917.91672}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0026}

{txt}{hline 29}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}               VoteIncumbent{col 30}{c |} Coefficient{col 42}  Std. err.{col 54}      z{col 62}   P>|z|{col 70}     [95% con{col 83}f. interval]
{hline 29}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 21}Inc1T2T {c |}
{space 9}Two-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} .0135614{col 42}{space 2} .1821251{col 53}{space 1}    0.07{col 62}{space 3}0.941{col 70}{space 4}-.3433973{col 83}{space 3}   .37052
{txt}{space 10}inc_PreTreat_2T_01 {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-.0318792{col 42}{space 2} .2448764{col 53}{space 1}   -0.13{col 62}{space 3}0.896{col 70}{space 4} -.511828{col 83}{space 3} .4480697
{txt}{space 28} {c |}
Inc1T2T#c.inc_PreTreat_2T_01 {c |}
{space 9}Two-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} -.373603{col 42}{space 2} .3406441{col 53}{space 1}   -1.10{col 62}{space 3}0.273{col 70}{space 4}-1.041253{col 83}{space 3} .2940471
{txt}{space 28} {c |}
{space 23}_cons {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-.1721106{col 42}{space 2} .1301833{col 53}{space 1}   -1.32{col 62}{space 3}0.186{col 70}{space 4}-.4272652{col 83}{space 3}  .083044
{txt}{hline 29}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, dydx(Inc1T2T) at(inc_PreTreat_2T_01=(0(.2)1))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Conditional marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:1,344}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(VoteIncumbent), predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:1.Inc1T2T}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 7:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat_~01} = {res:{ralign 2:0}}
{lalign 7:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat_~01} = {res:{ralign 2:.2}}
{lalign 7:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat_~01} = {res:{ralign 2:.4}}
{lalign 7:4._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat_~01} = {res:{ralign 2:.6}}
{lalign 7:5._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat_~01} = {res:{ralign 2:.8}}
{lalign 7:6._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:inc_PreTreat_~01} = {res:{ralign 2:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}{res}0.Inc1T2T   {col 14}{txt}{c |}  (base outcome)
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}1.Inc1T2T    {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0033673{col 26}{space 2} .0452205{col 37}{space 1}    0.07{col 46}{space 3}0.941{col 54}{space 4}-.0852633{col 67}{space 3} .0919978
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0151228{col 26}{space 2} .0332236{col 37}{space 1}   -0.46{col 46}{space 3}0.649{col 54}{space 4}-.0802399{col 67}{space 3} .0499943
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0334207{col 26}{space 2}   .02718{col 37}{space 1}   -1.23{col 46}{space 3}0.219{col 54}{space 4}-.0866924{col 67}{space 3}  .019851
{txt}{space 10}4  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.051465{col 26}{space 2}  .030559{col 37}{space 1}   -1.68{col 46}{space 3}0.092{col 54}{space 4}-.1113595{col 67}{space 3} .0084295
{txt}{space 10}5  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0691974{col 26}{space 2} .0407925{col 37}{space 1}   -1.70{col 46}{space 3}0.090{col 54}{space 4}-.1491493{col 67}{space 3} .0107545
{txt}{space 10}6  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0865635{col 26}{space 2} .0538204{col 37}{space 1}   -1.61{col 46}{space 3}0.108{col 54}{space 4}-.1920495{col 67}{space 3} .0189225
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 78}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot,  yline(0)  title("") xtitle("{c -(}bf: Norm:  Change Parties After 2 Terms{c )-}")  ///
> ytitle("{c -(}bf: Conditional Effect of 2-Term on pr(Vote for Incumbent Candidate){c )-}", size(small)) ///
> plotopts(lcolor(black) lwidth(medthick) mcolor(black) msymbol(circle_hollow) msize(medlarge)) ///
> ciopts(color(black)) ///
> xlab(, glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs14)) ///
> ylab(, glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs14)) ///
> xsize(6.5) ysize(4.5) graphregion(margin(vsmall)) ///
> saving(normsgraph2T.gph, replace)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:inc_PreTreat_2T_01}{p_end}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
normsgraph2T.gph{rm}
not found)
{p_end}
{res}{txt}file {bf:normsgraph2T.gph} saved

{com}. 
. 
. *SUPPLEMENTAL APPENDIX E
. 
. *Table E1
. tab inc_FMC incumbencytreatment, nofreq col chi2 V 

  {txt}Response {c |}                  incumbencytreatment
    to FMC {c |}   Control        1TD        1TR        2TD        2TR {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 55}{c +}{hline 10}
   Control {c |}{res}     80.53      13.41      12.39      16.57      13.78 {txt}{c |}{res}     27.39 
{txt}       1TD {c |}{res}      5.35      70.64       7.10       7.61       4.30 {txt}{c |}{res}     19.01 
{txt}       1TR {c |}{res}      4.16       7.00      72.81       3.88       7.11 {txt}{c |}{res}     18.83 
{txt}       2TD {c |}{res}      5.35       6.26       4.08      67.31       9.63 {txt}{c |}{res}     18.53 
{txt}       2TR {c |}{res}      4.61       2.68       3.63       4.63      65.19 {txt}{c |}{res}     16.23 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 55}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}    100.00     100.00     100.00     100.00     100.00 {txt}{c |}{res}    100.00 

{txt}         Pearson chi2({res}16{txt}) = {res} 5.7e+03  {txt} Pr = {res}0.000
{txt}               Cram{c e'}r's V = {res}  0.6498
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *SUPPLEMENTAL APPENDIX F
. 
. *Figure F1
. *Left panel
. logit VoteDem i.Inc0C1T2T##c.mvcscale_01 if Inc0C1T2T<=1 // 1 term effect more positive (sig)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-927.71555}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-921.00012}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-920.99998}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-920.99998}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:1,344}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:3})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:13.43}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0038}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-920.99998}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0072}

{txt}{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                VoteDem{col 25}{c |} Coefficient{col 37}  Std. err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% con{col 78}f. interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 14}Inc0C1T2T {c |}
{space 4}One-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0687094{col 37}{space 2} .1964181{col 48}{space 1}   -0.35{col 57}{space 3}0.726{col 65}{space 4}-.4536818{col 78}{space 3}  .316263
{txt}{space 12}mvcscale_01 {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0216186{col 37}{space 2} .2003276{col 48}{space 1}   -0.11{col 57}{space 3}0.914{col 65}{space 4}-.4142535{col 78}{space 3} .3710163
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
Inc0C1T2T#c.mvcscale_01 {c |}
{space 4}One-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .5789165{col 37}{space 2} .2849473{col 48}{space 1}    2.03{col 57}{space 3}0.042{col 65}{space 4} .0204301{col 78}{space 3} 1.137403
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
{space 18}_cons {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}  -.27195{col 37}{space 2} .1377423{col 48}{space 1}   -1.97{col 57}{space 3}0.048{col 65}{space 4}  -.54192{col 78}{space 3}-.0019799
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, dydx(i.Inc0C1T2T) at(mvcscale_01=(0(.5)1))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Conditional marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:1,344}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(VoteDem), predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:1.Inc0C1T2T}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 7:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 11:mvcscale_01} = {res:{ralign 2:0}}
{lalign 7:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 11:mvcscale_01} = {res:{ralign 2:.5}}
{lalign 7:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 11:mvcscale_01} = {res:{ralign 2:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}{res}0.Inc0C1T2T {col 14}{txt}{c |}  (base outcome)
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}1.Inc0C1T2T  {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0167791{col 26}{space 2} .0479539{col 37}{space 1}   -0.35{col 46}{space 3}0.726{col 54}{space 4} -.110767{col 67}{space 3} .0772088
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0547249{col 26}{space 2} .0276708{col 37}{space 1}    1.98{col 46}{space 3}0.048{col 54}{space 4} .0004912{col 67}{space 3} .1089587
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1268184{col 26}{space 2} .0404264{col 37}{space 1}    3.14{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4} .0475841{col 67}{space 3} .2060526
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 78}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot,  yline(0) title("{c -(}bf: 1T vs. Control{c )-}", pos(12) span box) xtitle("Mock Vignette Check Performance")  ///
> ytitle("Effect on pr(Vote for Democratic Candidate)") ///
> saving(MVCgraph1.gph, replace)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:mvcscale_01}{p_end}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
MVCgraph1.gph{rm}
not found)
{p_end}
{res}{txt}file {bf:MVCgraph1.gph} saved

{com}. 
. *Center panel
. logit VoteRep i.Inc0C1T2T##c.mvcscale_01 if Inc0C1T2T<=1 // 1 term effect more positive (marg sig 1T)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-905.26515}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-899.95985}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-899.95845}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-899.95845}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:1,335}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:3})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:10.61}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0140}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-899.95845}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0059}

{txt}{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                VoteRep{col 25}{c |} Coefficient{col 37}  Std. err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% con{col 78}f. interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 14}Inc0C1T2T {c |}
{space 4}One-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0653552{col 37}{space 2} .2035674{col 48}{space 1}   -0.32{col 57}{space 3}0.748{col 65}{space 4}-.4643399{col 78}{space 3} .3336295
{txt}{space 12}mvcscale_01 {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .1332235{col 37}{space 2} .2036484{col 48}{space 1}    0.65{col 57}{space 3}0.513{col 65}{space 4}-.2659201{col 78}{space 3} .5323671
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
Inc0C1T2T#c.mvcscale_01 {c |}
{space 4}One-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .4357806{col 37}{space 2} .2938982{col 48}{space 1}    1.48{col 57}{space 3}0.138{col 65}{space 4}-.1402493{col 78}{space 3}  1.01181
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
{space 18}_cons {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} -.519917{col 37}{space 2} .1407734{col 48}{space 1}   -3.69{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.7958279{col 78}{space 3}-.2440061
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, dydx(i.Inc0C1T2T) at(mvcscale_01=(0(.5)1))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Conditional marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:1,335}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(VoteRep), predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:1.Inc0C1T2T}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 7:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 11:mvcscale_01} = {res:{ralign 2:0}}
{lalign 7:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 11:mvcscale_01} = {res:{ralign 2:.5}}
{lalign 7:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 11:mvcscale_01} = {res:{ralign 2:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}{res}0.Inc0C1T2T {col 14}{txt}{c |}  (base outcome)
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}1.Inc0C1T2T  {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0151513{col 26}{space 2} .0471701{col 37}{space 1}   -0.32{col 46}{space 3}0.748{col 54}{space 4} -.107603{col 67}{space 3} .0773005
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .036794{col 26}{space 2} .0274853{col 37}{space 1}    1.34{col 46}{space 3}0.181{col 54}{space 4}-.0170763{col 67}{space 3} .0906643
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0914195{col 26}{space 2} .0408943{col 37}{space 1}    2.24{col 46}{space 3}0.025{col 54}{space 4} .0112681{col 67}{space 3}  .171571
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 78}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, yline(0) title("{c -(}bf: 1T vs. Control{c )-}", pos(12) span box) xtitle("Mock Vignette Check Performance") ///
> ytitle("Effect on pr(Vote for Republican Candidate)") ///
> plotopts(lcolor(red) mcolor(red)) ciopts(color(red)) ///
> saving(MVCgraph2.gph, replace)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:mvcscale_01}{p_end}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
MVCgraph2.gph{rm}
not found)
{p_end}
{res}{txt}file {bf:MVCgraph2.gph} saved

{com}. 
. *Right panel
. logit VoteIncumbent i.Inc0C1T2T##c.mvcscale_01 if Inc0C1T2T>=1 // more negative (correct)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1839.4092}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1827.2214}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1827.2197}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-1827.2197}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:2,678}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:3})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:24.38}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-1827.2197}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0066}

{txt}{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}          VoteIncumbent{col 25}{c |} Coefficient{col 37}  Std. err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% con{col 78}f. interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 14}Inc0C1T2T {c |}
{space 4}Two-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0237489{col 37}{space 2} .1416626{col 48}{space 1}   -0.17{col 57}{space 3}0.867{col 65}{space 4}-.3014025{col 78}{space 3} .2539047
{txt}{space 12}mvcscale_01 {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .5603868{col 37}{space 2} .1462163{col 48}{space 1}    3.83{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .2738082{col 78}{space 3} .8469654
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
Inc0C1T2T#c.mvcscale_01 {c |}
{space 4}Two-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.2626557{col 37}{space 2} .2042549{col 48}{space 1}   -1.29{col 57}{space 3}0.198{col 65}{space 4} -.662988{col 78}{space 3} .1376766
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
{space 18}_cons {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.4600935{col 37}{space 2} .1012519{col 48}{space 1}   -4.54{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.6585437{col 78}{space 3}-.2616434
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, dydx(i.Inc0C1T2T) at(mvcscale_01=(0(.5)1))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Conditional marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:2,678}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(VoteIncumbent), predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:2.Inc0C1T2T}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 7:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 11:mvcscale_01} = {res:{ralign 2:0}}
{lalign 7:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 11:mvcscale_01} = {res:{ralign 2:.5}}
{lalign 7:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 11:mvcscale_01} = {res:{ralign 2:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}{res}1.Inc0C1T2T {col 14}{txt}{c |}  (base outcome)
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}2.Inc0C1T2T  {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0056184{col 26}{space 2} .0335155{col 37}{space 1}   -0.17{col 46}{space 3}0.867{col 54}{space 4}-.0713076{col 67}{space 3} .0600708
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0381157{col 26}{space 2} .0195891{col 37}{space 1}   -1.95{col 46}{space 3}0.052{col 54}{space 4}-.0765097{col 67}{space 3} .0002783
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0714463{col 26}{space 2} .0289064{col 37}{space 1}   -2.47{col 46}{space 3}0.013{col 54}{space 4}-.1281019{col 67}{space 3}-.0147908
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 78}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot,  yline(0) title("{c -(}bf: 2T vs. 1T{c )-}", pos(12) span box) xtitle("Mock Vignette Check Performance") ///
> ytitle("Effect on pr(Vote for Incumbent-Party Candidate)") ///
> plotopts(lcolor(black) mcolor(black)) ciopts(color(black)) ///
> saving(MVCgraph3.gph, replace)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:mvcscale_01}{p_end}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
MVCgraph3.gph{rm}
not found)
{p_end}
{res}{txt}file {bf:MVCgraph3.gph} saved

{com}. 
. *Combine panels
. graph combine "MVCgraph1.gph" "MVCgraph2.gph" "MVCgraph3.gph", col(3) ///
> xsize(6.5) ysize(4.5) graphregion(margin(vsmall)) 
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. *Figure F2
. logit VoteDem i.Inc0C1T2T##c.mvcscale_01 if Inc0C1T2T!=1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-922.61417}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-920.97932}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-920.97927}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:1,343}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:3})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:3.27}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.3519}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-920.97927}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0018}

{txt}{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                VoteDem{col 25}{c |} Coefficient{col 37}  Std. err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% con{col 78}f. interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 14}Inc0C1T2T {c |}
{space 4}Two-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0470039{col 37}{space 2} .1934952{col 48}{space 1}   -0.24{col 57}{space 3}0.808{col 65}{space 4}-.4262475{col 78}{space 3} .3322398
{txt}{space 12}mvcscale_01 {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0216186{col 37}{space 2} .2003276{col 48}{space 1}   -0.11{col 57}{space 3}0.914{col 65}{space 4}-.4142535{col 78}{space 3} .3710163
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
Inc0C1T2T#c.mvcscale_01 {c |}
{space 4}Two-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}  .308454{col 37}{space 2} .2848958{col 48}{space 1}    1.08{col 57}{space 3}0.279{col 65}{space 4}-.2499315{col 78}{space 3} .8668396
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
{space 18}_cons {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}  -.27195{col 37}{space 2} .1377423{col 48}{space 1}   -1.97{col 57}{space 3}0.048{col 65}{space 4}  -.54192{col 78}{space 3}-.0019799
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, dydx(i.Inc0C1T2T) at(mvcscale_01=(0(.5)1)) saving(incMVCGraphD, replace) 
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Conditional marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:1,343}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(VoteDem), predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:2.Inc0C1T2T}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 7:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 11:mvcscale_01} = {res:{ralign 2:0}}
{lalign 7:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 11:mvcscale_01} = {res:{ralign 2:.5}}
{lalign 7:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 11:mvcscale_01} = {res:{ralign 2:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}{res}0.Inc0C1T2T {col 14}{txt}{c |}  (base outcome)
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}2.Inc0C1T2T  {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0114977{col 26}{space 2} .0473297{col 37}{space 1}   -0.24{col 46}{space 3}0.808{col 54}{space 4}-.1042622{col 67}{space 3} .0812668
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0264509{col 26}{space 2} .0274319{col 37}{space 1}    0.96{col 46}{space 3}0.335{col 54}{space 4}-.0273147{col 67}{space 3} .0802165
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0648406{col 26}{space 2} .0413216{col 37}{space 1}    1.57{col 46}{space 3}0.117{col 54}{space 4}-.0161483{col 67}{space 3} .1458296
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 78}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
incMVCGraphD.dta{rm}
not found)
{p_end}

{com}. 
. logit VoteRep i.Inc0C1T2T##c.mvcscale_01 if Inc0C1T2T!=1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-900.24419}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-898.42641}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-898.42579}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-898.42579}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:1,348}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:3})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:3.64}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.3034}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-898.42579}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0020}

{txt}{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                VoteRep{col 25}{c |} Coefficient{col 37}  Std. err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% con{col 78}f. interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 14}Inc0C1T2T {c |}
{space 4}Two-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} -.162977{col 37}{space 2} .2029921{col 48}{space 1}   -0.80{col 57}{space 3}0.422{col 65}{space 4}-.5608343{col 78}{space 3} .2348802
{txt}{space 12}mvcscale_01 {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .1332235{col 37}{space 2} .2036484{col 48}{space 1}    0.65{col 57}{space 3}0.513{col 65}{space 4}-.2659201{col 78}{space 3} .5323671
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
Inc0C1T2T#c.mvcscale_01 {c |}
{space 4}Two-Term Incumbent  {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .2270035{col 37}{space 2} .2877811{col 48}{space 1}    0.79{col 57}{space 3}0.430{col 65}{space 4}-.3370371{col 78}{space 3}  .791044
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
{space 18}_cons {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} -.519917{col 37}{space 2} .1407734{col 48}{space 1}   -3.69{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.7958279{col 78}{space 3}-.2440061
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, dydx(i.Inc0C1T2T) at(mvcscale_01=(0(.5)1)) saving(incMVCGraphR, replace)
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Conditional marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:1,348}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:OIM}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(VoteRep), predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:2.Inc0C1T2T}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 7:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 11:mvcscale_01} = {res:{ralign 2:0}}
{lalign 7:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 11:mvcscale_01} = {res:{ralign 2:.5}}
{lalign 7:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 11:mvcscale_01} = {res:{ralign 2:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}{res}0.Inc0C1T2T {col 14}{txt}{c |}  (base outcome)
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}2.Inc0C1T2T  {txt}{c |}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0372559{col 26}{space 2} .0463361{col 37}{space 1}   -0.80{col 46}{space 3}0.421{col 54}{space 4} -.128073{col 67}{space 3} .0535611
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0116877{col 26}{space 2} .0271324{col 37}{space 1}   -0.43{col 46}{space 3}0.667{col 54}{space 4}-.0648662{col 67}{space 3} .0414907
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0155124{col 26}{space 2} .0394972{col 37}{space 1}    0.39{col 46}{space 3}0.695{col 54}{space 4}-.0619008{col 67}{space 3} .0929255
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 78}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}{p 0 4 2}
(file {bf}
incMVCGraphR.dta{rm}
not found)
{p_end}

{com}. 
. *Combine plots
. combomarginsplot incMVCGraphD incMVCGraphR, scheme(white_jet) ///
> labels("Democratic Candidate" "Republican Candidate") ///
> ytitle("{c -(}bf:Effect of 2T vs. Control on pr(Vote for the Candidate){c )-}") ///
> xsize(6.5) ysize(4.5) ///
> file1opts(lcolor(midblue%90) lwidth(medthick) msize(vlarge) mcolor(midblue%90) mlcolor(cyan)) ///
> file2opts(lcolor("252 0 0"%90) lwidth(medthick) msize(vlarge) mcolor("252 0 0"%90) mlcolor(orange)) ///
> fileci1opts(lwidth(medthick) lcolor(midblue%60)) ///
> fileci2opts(lwidth(medthick) lcolor("252 0 0%60")) ///
> graphregion(margin(medium)) ///
> xlab(, glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs14)) ///
> ylab(-.2(.05).2, glpattern(solid) glcolor(gs14)) ///
> yline(0, lcolor(black)) ///
> plotregion(margin(large)) ///
> legend (ring(1) pos(3) col(1)) ///
> title("") xtitle("MVC Performance") //
{res}
{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: mvcscale_01 _filenumber{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *SUPPLEMENTAL APPENDIX G
. use "VSG Panel Data.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Table G1
. *Vote for 1-term incumbents
. logit vote1termIncumbent b1.D0I1R2 c.PolInt01 Female i.raceclean_baseline ///
> age_baseline01 famincclean_2011_01 educclean_baseline_01 

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-361.75659}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-338.39696}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-333.38881}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-333.36555}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-333.36554}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:2,527}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:10})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:56.78}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-333.36554}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0785}

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}   vote1termIncumbent{col 23}{c |} Coefficient{col 35}  Std. err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% con{col 76}f. interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 15}D0I1R2 {c |}
{space 11}Democrats  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0053323{col 35}{space 2} .3155337{col 46}{space 1}    0.02{col 55}{space 3}0.987{col 63}{space 4}-.6131024{col 76}{space 3} .6237671
{txt}{space 9}Republicans  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.015564{col 35}{space 2} .3838143{col 46}{space 1}   -2.65{col 55}{space 3}0.008{col 63}{space 4}-1.767826{col 76}{space 3}-.2633012
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 13}PolInt01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.8438177{col 35}{space 2} .3521577{col 46}{space 1}   -2.40{col 55}{space 3}0.017{col 63}{space 4}-1.534034{col 76}{space 3}-.1536013
{txt}{space 15}Female {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .5602577{col 35}{space 2} .2540212{col 46}{space 1}    2.21{col 55}{space 3}0.027{col 63}{space 4} .0623854{col 76}{space 3}  1.05813
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 3}raceclean_baseline {c |}
{space 15}Black  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.113522{col 35}{space 2} .6033578{col 46}{space 1}   -1.85{col 55}{space 3}0.065{col 63}{space 4}-2.296081{col 76}{space 3} .0690377
{txt}{space 12}Hispanic  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .3663255{col 35}{space 2}  .444849{col 46}{space 1}    0.82{col 55}{space 3}0.410{col 63}{space 4}-.5055625{col 76}{space 3} 1.238213
{txt}{space 15}Other  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .1422268{col 35}{space 2} .4465418{col 46}{space 1}    0.32{col 55}{space 3}0.750{col 63}{space 4}-.7329791{col 76}{space 3} 1.017433
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 7}age_baseline01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.8149514{col 35}{space 2} .7000683{col 46}{space 1}   -1.16{col 55}{space 3}0.244{col 63}{space 4} -2.18706{col 76}{space 3} .5571574
{txt}{space 2}famincclean_2011_01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} -.409042{col 35}{space 2} .4598707{col 46}{space 1}   -0.89{col 55}{space 3}0.374{col 63}{space 4}-1.310372{col 76}{space 3} .4922879
{txt}educclean_baseline_01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.559203{col 35}{space 2} .4757143{col 46}{space 1}   -3.28{col 55}{space 3}0.001{col 63}{space 4}-2.491586{col 76}{space 3}-.6268197
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.432703{col 35}{space 2} .5526966{col 46}{space 1}   -2.59{col 55}{space 3}0.010{col 63}{space 4}-2.515968{col 76}{space 3}-.3494371
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. *Vote against 2-term incumbents 
. logit vote2termIncumbent b1.D0I1R2 c.PolInt01 Female i.raceclean_baseline ///
> age_baseline01 famincclean_2011_01 educclean_baseline_01

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res: -532.5459}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-508.59777}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-502.24758}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-502.23103}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-502.23103}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:2,527}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:10})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:60.63}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-502.23103}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0569}

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}   vote2termIncumbent{col 23}{c |} Coefficient{col 35}  Std. err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% con{col 76}f. interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 15}D0I1R2 {c |}
{space 11}Democrats  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.9730682{col 35}{space 2} .2207132{col 46}{space 1}   -4.41{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-1.405658{col 76}{space 3}-.5404783
{txt}{space 9}Republicans  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.316726{col 35}{space 2}  .244144{col 46}{space 1}   -5.39{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-1.795239{col 76}{space 3}-.8382127
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 13}PolInt01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.6346823{col 35}{space 2} .2977927{col 46}{space 1}   -2.13{col 55}{space 3}0.033{col 63}{space 4}-1.218345{col 76}{space 3}-.0510192
{txt}{space 15}Female {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0812669{col 35}{space 2} .1886132{col 46}{space 1}   -0.43{col 55}{space 3}0.667{col 63}{space 4}-.4509419{col 76}{space 3} .2884082
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 3}raceclean_baseline {c |}
{space 15}Black  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.032684{col 35}{space 2} .5222307{col 46}{space 1}   -1.98{col 55}{space 3}0.048{col 63}{space 4}-2.056237{col 76}{space 3}-.0091306
{txt}{space 12}Hispanic  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .2593604{col 35}{space 2} .3644984{col 46}{space 1}    0.71{col 55}{space 3}0.477{col 63}{space 4}-.4550434{col 76}{space 3} .9737642
{txt}{space 15}Other  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.3023642{col 35}{space 2} .4065654{col 46}{space 1}   -0.74{col 55}{space 3}0.457{col 63}{space 4}-1.099218{col 76}{space 3} .4944893
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 7}age_baseline01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 1.232504{col 35}{space 2} .5800984{col 46}{space 1}    2.12{col 55}{space 3}0.034{col 63}{space 4} .0955317{col 76}{space 3} 2.369476
{txt}{space 2}famincclean_2011_01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.3059128{col 35}{space 2} .3584272{col 46}{space 1}   -0.85{col 55}{space 3}0.393{col 63}{space 4}-1.008417{col 76}{space 3} .3965916
{txt}educclean_baseline_01 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.8695634{col 35}{space 2} .3550032{col 46}{space 1}   -2.45{col 55}{space 3}0.014{col 63}{space 4}-1.565357{col 76}{space 3}-.1737699
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.364941{col 35}{space 2} .4420797{col 46}{space 1}   -3.09{col 55}{space 3}0.002{col 63}{space 4}-2.231401{col 76}{space 3}-.4984804
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. *SUPPLEMENTAL APPENDIX I
. use "Election data_PostCivilWar.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Figure I1
. preserve // 
{txt}
{com}. rename (Dem_2pvs Rep_2pvs) var=
{res}{txt}
{com}. reshape long var, i(Election) j(which) string
{txt}(j = Dem_2pvs Rep_2pvs)

Data{col 36}Wide{col 43}->{col 48}Long
{hline 77}
Number of observations     {res}          39   {txt}->   {res}78          
{txt}Number of variables        {res}           8   {txt}->   {res}8           
{txt}j variable (2 values)                     ->   {res}which
{txt}xij variables:
                {res}varDem_2pvs varRep_2pvs   {txt}->   {res}var
{txt}{hline 77}

{com}. collapse var, by(which Election)
{res}{txt}
{com}. separate var, by(which) veryshortlabel

{txt}Variable      Storage   Display    Value
    name         type    format    label      Variable label
{hline}
{p 0 48}{res}{bind:var1           }{txt}{bind: double  }{bind:%9.0g     }{space 1}{bind:         }{bind:  }{res}{res}Dem_2pvs{p_end}
{p 0 48}{bind:var2           }{txt}{bind: double  }{bind:%9.0g     }{space 1}{bind:         }{bind:  }{res}{res}Rep_2pvs{p_end}
{txt}
{com}. 
. tw dot var? Election, ms(triangle triangle) msize(medium medium) mcolor(midblue red)  ///
> horizontal ///
> ylab(1868(4)2020, labsize(vsmall) angle(horiz)) ///
> xlab(.3(.05).7, labsize(small)) ///
> yscale(reverse) ///
> ytitle("") ///
> xline(.50, lcolor(gs6)) ///
> graphregion(margin(vsmall)) ///
> xsize(6.5) ysize(5.5) ///
> xtitle(Two-Party Vote Share, size(vsmall)) ///
> legend(pos(1) ring(0) size(vsmall)) ///
> legend(order(1 "Democrats" 2 "Republicans") region(margin(vsmall) lcolor(black) fcolor(gs14)))
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. /* Create a variable for losing vote share between initial election and 1st reelection attempt
> gen IncPartyLostVotesFirstTerm=0 if inlist(Election, 1888, 1900, 1916, 1924, 1936, 1956, 1964, 1972, 1984, 1996, 2004)
> replace IncPartyLostVotesFirstTerm=1 if inlist(Election, 1892, 1896, 1980, 2012, 2020)
> label define IncPartyLostVotesFirstTerm 0 "Did Not Lose 2PVS" 1 "Lost 2PVS"
> label values IncPartyLostVotesFirstTerm IncPartyLostVotesFirstTerm
> */
. 
. *Analysis of vote share lost between initial election and first re-election
. tab IncPartyLostVotesFirstTerm

{txt}IncPartyLostVotes {c |}
        FirstTerm {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 35}
Did Not Lose 2PVS {c |}{res}         11       68.75       68.75
{txt}        Lost 2PVS {c |}{res}          5       31.25      100.00
{txt}{hline 18}{c +}{hline 35}
            Total {c |}{res}         16      100.00
{txt}
{com}. 
. *******************************
. *END
. *******************************
. 
{txt}end of do-file

{com}. log close
      {txt}name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}/Users/JohnVKane/Desktop/Research/Incumbency Advantage/Manuscript/PSRM Submission/Revise and Resubmit/Submission/Round 2/Replication Materials/replication_log.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}closed on:  {res} 4 Apr 2024, 13:53:48
{txt}{.-}
{smcl}
{txt}{sf}{ul off}